{"id":273,"date":"2016-03-07T16:19:18","date_gmt":"2016-03-07T16:19:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/?p=273"},"modified":"2016-03-07T16:19:18","modified_gmt":"2016-03-07T16:19:18","slug":"myth-4-climate-change-is-good-george-reynoldson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/myth-4-climate-change-is-good-george-reynoldson\/","title":{"rendered":"Myth #4 \u2013 Climate Change is Good – George Reynoldson"},"content":{"rendered":"

The myth that \u201cclimate change is good\u201d is widely broadcast by a variety of social interests, politicians, and their combined constituencies hoping to get or stay empowered in many countries, especially northern (developed) ones like the United States, Canada and Russia. \u00a0The loudest voices on the \u201cis good side\u201d are usually hydrocarbon interests, corporations and oil oligarchs and their public relations voices (often conservatives) who usually imply that a warming climate improves agriculture in cold northern climates and is perhaps \u201cgood\u201d for foresters and tourism industries as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course it is likely true that a future warmer climate could actually benefit a few scattered cold climate farmers, loggers, and resort owners. \u00a0The Stern Report and other economic analyses however predict that “bad” will offset \u201cgood\u201d by economic measures of up to 2-5% annual GDP losses. \u00a0Predictions of increased desertification, more frequent flooding, more wildfires, storm intensification (like Sandy), crops increasingly stressed by excess heat, soil and beach erosion and human health issues are a partial list of \u201cbad\u201d climate impacts listed by the UN\u2019s IPCC which is now almost universally endorsed by professional atmospheric and climate scientists. <\/span><\/p>\n

The implied assumption here is that \u201cgood or bad\u201d refers to human (development) welfare which of course is not a simple good or bad issue, but always raises a broad range of questions such as \u201cfor who, \u201cin what timeframe\u201d, \u201chow\u201d or \u201cwhy\u201d? \u00a0For example, farming, forestry and tourism also require adequate water access, sufficient sunlight, appropriate soils, economic viability, and regional backup infrastructure to actually benefit from warming temperatures. \u00a0These constraints must be considered too. \u00a0Furthermore they must be ranked by relative importance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Critical climate positive feedback loops (ones that cause more warming) highlight this ranking necessity because they impact everything else. \u00a0Nearly all good or bad simplicity can be ruled out just by putting two key positive climate feedback loops near the top of the list. \u00a0They stand out so much because of their overall capacity to reduce the ocean\u2019s heroic role of keeping the earth\u2019s heat budget in balance. \u00a0(1) Warmer air temperatures are a positive feedback in themselves. This is because warmer air always holds more water vapor which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. \u00a0As such, it self-amplifies the warming. \u00a0Another key dilemma is (2) that warmer oceans lose their ability to sequester the GHG CO<\/span>2<\/span> for two basic reasons: \u00a0(a) Phytoplankton growth absorbs a lot of atmospheric CO<\/span>2<\/span> but loses this ability dramatically as water temperature rises. \u00a0This is a major reason additional atmospheric carbon flux spikes most in El Nino years when the oceans are warmest. \u00a0Also, (b) warmer ocean water releases more CO<\/span>2 <\/span>into the air by direct gas exchange (outgassing) thus also reducing the ocean\u2019s ability to modulate the earth\u2019s heat blanket properly. \u00a0To summarize, making full use of the ocean specific heat and heat capacity is the earth\u2019s key secret in maintaining the it\u2019s thermal stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hopefully the reader can see by now that whether climate change is good or bad is in reality not the right question to ask in the first place. \u00a0The world has been far too complicated for many centuries to judge complex issues by \u201cgood or bad\u201d and it seems shameful to see such Manichean like thinking dominate the tongues of many of today\u2019s politicians and news commentators alike on the subject of the climate. \u00a0\u201cYes or no\u201d type binary responses limit the range of questions that can be asked, especially those requiring more nuanced answers because of issue complexity. \u00a0Almost any aspect of the human caused climate change problem involves multi-disciplinary analyses by specialists to even try to fully understand it. \u00a0This is primarily because the climate change problem is a difficult to understand anthropogenically driven earth-wide biophysical process. \u00a0(HUH?!) \u00a0Thus, both theoretical and applied social and physical sciences are essential. \u00a0Furthermore explicit analyses by ethicists and theologians seems especially critical because they DO help make the decision making processes a bit simpler for most and have special expertise in sorting out \u201cgood or bad\u201d and \u201cyes or no\u201d folks who seek opinions they might feel comfortable with. \u00a0Understanding the importance of professional linguists helps too. \u00a0Society finds meaning through words and is deeply dependent on finding the right ones to form opinions that are sufficiently strong to claim them and pass them on with conviction. \u00a0Finding good communicators is key.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is where Dr. James Hansen of Columbia University and Goddard Institute of Space Studies comes in. \u00a0He is perhaps America\u2019s most prominent climate scientist. \u00a0The <\/span>accuracy<\/b> of his early (1981) atmospheric research and the <\/span>courage<\/b> he expressed in his Congressional (1988) testimony ranks his opinion and his human qualities at the very top of many a list. \u00a0His role as a scientist and a political conservative with relatively traditional religious views makes his words unusually hearable for many. \u00a0On TV, in lectures, at conferences and under Congressional testimony, his low keyed persona is always appealing. \u00a0He feels alternately very expert and very human.<\/span><\/p>\n

I do not hide my respect for him personally because for me consistency counts and he is and has been emphatic about climate change for nearly 30 years and sees that it will adversely impact human welfare. \u00a0(THIS MEANS CLIMATE CHANGE IS BAD!) \u00a0Even in his semi-retirement he has made protecting his own grandchildren, Sophie, Jake and Connor from the adverse affects of climate change, a personal mission. \u00a0For the nation he advocates for a \u201cnational carbon fee and dividend\u201d. \u00a0This is still too radical of a departure from most who still cling to \u201cbusiness and usual\u201d, but for those understanding the need for change, it is a simple and eloquent economic solution. \u00a0It penalizes fossil fuel use (THIS IS GOOD) and spreads its rewards for taking action across American society. \u00a0This may imply that CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION CAN BE VERY GOOD TOO! His most utilitarian quality in terms of advancing climate awareness may be the fact that his politically based arguments are mostly from a conservative point of view and reflect the sentiments of his own generation, a lot!.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most climate scientists have difficulty bridging science complexity and practical ethical simplicity like this so perhaps this is why his opinions are of such extreme value. \u00a0Since most people do not have the time to deeply understand the nuances of climate science or energy economics, listening to those who do and who they respect is probably the best that we can hope for. \u00a0This must apply especially to those social interests, politicians, and their combined constituencies who still see \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d as either unstoppable or \u201cgood\u201d without asking \u201cfor whom, \u201cin what timeframe\u201d, \u201chow\u201d or \u201cwhy\u201d?<\/span><\/p>\n

Locating one or a few serious students of climate change who has deeply contemplated the issues and with whom to reason through the climate change information chaos \u00a0is helpful to both the expert and the novice because it facilitates understanding at both levels. \u00a0This is a final recommendation. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The myth that \u201cclimate change is good\u201d is widely broadcast by a variety of social interests, politicians, and their combined constituencies hoping to get or stay empowered in many countries, especially northern (developed) ones like the United States, Canada and Russia. \u00a0The loudest voices on the \u201cis good side\u201d are usually hydrocarbon interests, corporations and oil oligarchs and their public… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":274,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273\/revisions\/274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/ps301\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}