Portugal’s $99 Billion

From Bloomberg: Portugal Said to Need as Much as $99 Billion in Bailout

A bailout for Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros
($99 billion), said two European officials with direct knowledge of the
matter. A financial lifeline would be between 50 billion euros and 70 billion euros … Portugal has not yet asked for a bailout.

It appears a bailout is inevitable and imminent. Here are the 2 year (6.7%), 5 year (8.2%) and 10 year (7.7%) yields on Portuguese government debt – all at new highs.

Watch Ireland too – the Irish ten year yield is near 10%.

To Cut Or Not To Cut – The 1932 Version

Same discussion, same situation, issues, just 80 years ago

The Pain Caucus of 1932

Tyler Cowen sends us to Friedrich August von Hayek, T.E. Gregory, Arnold Plant, and Lionel Robbins on October 18, 1932.

I'm trying to get Ryan Avent to let Hayek represent the Pain Caucus on the Economist's
"By Invitation" feature: he's more articulate than most members of
today's pain caucus, and also more upfront in what he wants to see.

Hayek et al.:

Sound familiar?:
We are of the opinion that many of the troubles of the world at the
present are due to imprudent borrowing and spending on the part of the
public authorities. We do not desire to see a renewal of such practices.
At best they mortgage the Budgets of the future, and they tend to drive
up the rate of interest–a process which is surely particularly
undesirable at this juncture, when the revival of the supply of capital
to private industry is an admittedly urgent necessity. The depression
has abundantly shown that the existence of public debt on a large scale
imposes frictions and obstacles to readjustment very much greater than
the frictions an dobstacles imposed by the existence of private debt.

Hence we cannot agree with the signatories of the letter that this
is a time for new municipal swimming baths, etc., merely because "people
feel they want" such amenities.

If the Government wish to help revival, the right way for them to
proceed is, not to revert to their old habits of lavish expenditure, but
to abolish those restrictions on trade and the free movement of capital
(including restrictions on new issues) which are at present impeding
even the beginning of recovery.

And a little fact-checking. Barrie Wigmore points out:

The low point in government bonds was in January 1932, when the
U.S. Treasury 4 1/4 percent bonds due in 1952 hit $99… thereafter
prices rose… reduced U.S. government bond yields from an average of
3.92% in March 1932 to 3.76% in June…

U.S. debt-to-GDP was to more than quadruple from its 1932 value in
the New Deal and World War II, with no signs at all that such borrowing
was in any way "imprudent."

To Cut Or Not To Cut


Here is a good discussion about the proposal to cut the massive US government deficit. In a nutshell, its about inequity aversion: spend now to reduce unemployment, or start saving now to reduce the largest fiscal deficit in US history. The below is all from Mark Thoma, who provides the readers digest version (read the links if you want the full load)

Former CEA Chairs and the Unsustainable Budget Deficit


Unsustainable budget threatens U.S., by 10 ex-chairs of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, Politico:
… As former chairmen and chairwomen of the Council of Economic
Advisers, who have served in Republican and Democratic administrations,
we urge that the Bowles-Simpson report, “The Moment of Truth,” be the
starting point of an active legislative process that involves intense
negotiations between both parties.

There are many issues on which we don’t agree. Yet we find
ourselves in remarkable unanimity about the long-run federal budget
deficit: It is a severe threat that calls for serious and prompt
attention. …


It is tempting to act as if the long-run budget imbalance
could be fixed by just cutting wasteful government spending or raising
taxes on the wealthy. But the facts belie such easy answers. …



To be sure, we don’t all support every proposal here. Each
one of us could probably come up with a deficit reduction plan we like
better. Some of us already have. Many of us might prefer one of the
comprehensive alternative proposals offered in recent months.



Yet we all strongly support prompt consideration of the
commission’s proposals. The unsustainable long-run budget outlook is a
growing threat to our well-being. Further stalemate and inaction would
be irresponsible.



We know the measures to deal with the long-run deficit are
politically difficult. The only way to accomplish them is for members
of both parties to accept the political risks together. That is what
the Republicans and Democrats on the commission who voted for the
bipartisan proposal did.


We urge Congress and the president to do the same. Martin N. Baily, Martin S. Feldstein, R. Glenn Hubbard, Edward P. Lazear, N. Gregory Mankiw, Christina D. Romer, Harvey S. Rosen, Charles L. Schultze, Laura D. Tyson, Murray L. Weidenbaum, 


   
Reading the names on the list, and noting the staunch opposition to tax increases by some, this came to mind:
Back in 2000, the U.S. government's long-term  budget was out
of balance–although not by all that much. The government had, you
see, made promises–very popular promises–for Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security without proposing sufficient funding streams to pay for
those promises. So back in 2000, looking forward, we had a choice:
raise taxes, or "bend the curve" by cutting the growth of spending. Instead of doing either of these, we elected George W. Bush.
Two wars. A big (and ill-advised) defense buildup that is very
unsuited to protecting us from Al Qaeda and company. A huge unfunded
expansion of Medicare. Plans for the unfunded expansion of Social
Security that came to nothing. However, instead of raising taxes George
W. Bush reduced them. Taxes are going up over the next decade–barring cuts of 1/3
to Medicare, etc. They can either go up smartly or we can pretend they
don't have to go up, in which case they go up stupidly. The argument
for small government was lost long ago, and was lost again and anew in
the past decade with Medicare Part D and the wars of George W. Bush. The time to stand up to the budget busting was when it happened, and
when members of the list had the power to affect policy, not many years
later in an article at Politico. Many on the list were either part of
the decision making team in the 2000s that opened the hole in the
budget, or supported what the team did. I suppose it's possible to argue
things were different in 2000 — there was a wide expectation that
budget surpluses would be the "problem" at that time. But if the
forecasts by members of the list were so bad then — and they were —
why should we listen now? The long-run budget problem does need to be addressed, but the
standing of some on the list to make this claim can certainly be called
into question.

 


 

So much for  Thoma's analysis, Each CEA  Chair is an intellectual power house in his/her own right. In the other corner are two nobel laureates (Stiglitz and Krugman) to create alively debate:

Why I didn't sign deficit letter, by Joseph E. Stiglitz: I was asked to sign the letter
from a bipartisan group of former chairmen and chairwomen of the
Council of Economic Advisers that stresses the importance of deficit
reduction and urges the use of the Bowles Simpson Deficit Commission’s
recommendations as the basis for compromise. … I did not sign.
I believe the Bowles Simpson recommendations represent, to
too large an extent, a set of unprincipled political compromises that
would lead to a weaker America — with slower growth and a more divided
society.
Deficit reduction is important. But it is a means to
an end — not an end in itself. We need to think about what kind of
economy, and what kind of society, we want to create; and how tax and
expenditure programs can help achieve those goals.Bowles-Simpson confuses means with ends, and would take us off in
directions which would likely be counterproductive. Fortunately, there
are alternatives that could do more for deficit reduction, more for
putting America back to work now and more for creating the kind of
economy and society we should be striving for in the future.
There's quite a bit more in the link.

Yep, It’s Regressive, says Paul Krugman: 

Jon Chait takes another look at Bowles-Simpson, this time with numbers from the Tax Policy Center, and is disillusioned. As I surmised,
it redistributes income upward: the bottom 80 percent of families
would pay higher taxes than they did in the Clinton years, while the
top 20 percent — and especially the top 5 percent — would pay less; not
what you’d call shared sacrifice.
The only twist here is that the ultra-rich, the top 0.1
percent, who get a lot of their income from dividends and capital
gains, would be hit by having these gains taxed as ordinary income.
Even so, they would face a smaller tax increase than the bottom 60
percent.
This wasn’t the plan we’ve been looking for; on taxes, what on earth were they thinking? One third of of the deficit reduction under Bowles-Simpson is from
revenue increases, and two thirds is from spending cuts. The above is
about tax cuts, but the spending cuts will, in the end, likely hit lower income households harder and end up being regressive as well.
Here is Krugma's summary of the Pain Caucuses shortcomings:

 

 

 

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Political and Economic Objectives Clash Again: End of Austerity

As expected, the BBC reports that Portugal is next, its just a matter of time – or should I say: its just a matter of election time…

Portugal bail-out looms as government nears collapse

Portuguese demonstratorsPortugal's austerity measures have sparked widespread opposition

Portugal's opposition parties have withdrawn their support for austerity policies that may lead to the Lisbon government's collapse on Wednesday.

The government's expected defeat in a parliamentary vote is likely to trigger an international financial rescue.

The vote comes on the eve of a European Union summit where leaders hope to finalise a eurozone debt crisis plan.

Kevin Dunning, analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the BBC that this is "crunch time" for Portugal.

"This could be the week when they have to activate the bail-out fund," he said.

Last year Greece and the Republic of Ireland had to accept massive rescue packages after markets lost faith in their governments' efforts to deal with their debt burdens.

Portugal's financial collapse would likely spark another round of nervousness in financial markets and may revive concerns about the larger Spanish economy.

Opposition parties say the austerity plan – cuts in welfare, tax rises, and increases in public transport costs – go too far.

Prime Minister Jose Socrates has said he will no longer be able to run the country if the package is rejected.

Major international lenders have been wary of Portugal's attempts to avoid tapping eurozone bail-out funds by raising money in the debt markets.

The yield on Portugal's 10-year bond was at 7.4% Tuesday, close to recent records, an indication of investors' concerns about the country's ability to pay back its debts.

On Thursday eurozone leaders begin a two-day summit at which they hope to finalise details of a "grand bargain" to deal with the 17-nation group's debt burden. 

The China Syndrom

China is learning about the basic principles of open economy macro: Sterilize the balance of payments surplus or experience increases in output that eventually lead to inflation. Use the TB/Y diagram or the Fixed Exchange Rate MF model to show how the undervaluation of a currency leads to massive reserve accumulations that must, eventually, be sterilized. It will be an interesting case study to count the ways in which China will try to maintain control of its money supply, and how follow effective each measure is going to be.