BOP: The Trouble with Numbers

Brad Setser highlights the difficulties statistical agencies encounter in their efforts to track all international transactions When The Trade Data Does Not Add Up: The bulk of the UK’s surplus in services come from trade with non-EU countries (services exports to the EU are large, but so are imports—Tuscan and French vacations?). See this chart (h/t Toby Nangle).

A big part of the non-EU surplus in services comes from the United States. In 2015, the UK reported a 27 billion GBP (just over $40 billion) surplus in services trade with the U.S. and an overall surplus in goods and services with the United States. The funny thing? The U.S. also thinks it runs a surplus in services trade with the UK. A $14 billion surplus in 2015, for exampleIt is pretty hard to square those two data points. UK data is from the Office of National Statistics’ Pink Book, U.S. data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), table 1.3 of the “International Transactions” data set. It turns out that the U.S. thinks it sells more services to the UK than the UK thinks it buys:And the UK thinks it sells more services to the U.S. than the U.S. thinks it buys.My guess is that such discrepancies are actually common in the services trade numbers. Goods trade is calculated by customs bureaus. Lots of the numbers on services trade come from surveys, estimates, and the like.

BOP MindBender

The Economist Magazine reports that since 1989 foreigners have owned more assets in America than Americans have owned overseas; in the jargon, the net international investment position (NIIP) has been negative.

One would expect that a negative NIIP would result in a negative sub component of the  Current account, namely the Net Interest Account. If foreigners have been investing more in the US than US companies invested in the rest of the word, one would expect that the US is paying more in interest payments to the rest of the world to generate a negative NIA. But no, the NIA has been constant at about 1% in the past decade… How could that be possible?