Argentinean Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Reducing

Bloomberg reports that Argentina “will reduce the nation’s fiscal deficit at a faster pace as part of an agreement with the IMF…” At the same time the article suggests that “an eventual deal with the International Monetary Fund will restore confidence and ensure long-term economic growth, President Macri told reporters on Wednesday.” That may be difficult to achieve at while the fiscal deficit declines according to the TB/Y / NS-I model. But until growth returns, the “main objective is reducing the fiscal deficit, which is a fundamental problem. This is something that makes us vulnerable because we depend so much on lending.” “Depending too much on lending” is a great euphemism for “living above one’s means.” Below are a few background graphs that correlate well with the TB/Y models (Source: Financial Times).

Line chart showing real GDP and inflation (consumer prices) for Argentina in annual % changeStacked column chart showing Argentina's primary v overall deficit in % of GDP