Gains from joining a preferential trade bloc typically emerge over a long-run time horizon, but even based on an initial five year horizon the European Commission identifies several gains from enlargement to both new and old members.  New members benefited from a reduction in borrowing costs and greater capital formation and from an inflow of foreign direct investment, which facilitated the transfer of more efficient technology.  Old members benefited from faster growth in the new members, which accounted for an important portion of their rising exports.  With the exception of Ireland, immigrant flows to old members represented less than 1 percent of the labor force.   

While the Commissions focus on benefits within the union addresses likely concerns within the EU, what might you predict with respect to the effects on non-members?

The Common Agricultural Policy remains a major budget item within the EU.  Although any predictions over the new shape it will assume in 2013 are necessarily imprecise, consider three scenarios that reflect varying degrees of attention to past entitlements, environmental objectives, and organic food production goals.

Here are the provocative findings from the analysis of Valentin Zahrnt:

Table 1. Scenarios for the distribution of CAP payments after 2013

Source: ECIPE study; 2015 data for Bulgaria and Romania

The results show that several traditional defenders of the CAP are
indeed likely to lose from reform – France, Greece, Ireland, and
Belgium. Other countries that defend the status quo would –
surprisingly – gain from reform. This is especially striking in the
case of Spain, which would reap the greatest absolute gains of all
member states. Finland would get the third highest increase under all
scenarios just after Sweden and Latvia. For both countries, the
benefits of bolder reform would be greater. To a lesser extent, this
also applies to reform-averse Portugal and Austria.