Euro Crisis: Is It Half Time Yet?

 

First it was panic, then hype, and now it is conventional wisdom: Portugal & Spain will have to restructure and its just a question when. How these packages turn out politically and economically will likely determine if the Euro will go into "over time" – a package for Italy… 

Here is Ken Rogoff:

Now that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund have committed €67.5 billion to rescue Ireland’s troubled banks, is the eurozone’s debt crisis finally nearing a conclusion?

Unfortunately, no. In fact, we are probably only at the mid-point of the crisis. To be sure, a huge, sustained burst of growth could still cure all of Europe’s debt problems – as it would anyone’s. But that halcyon scenario looks increasingly improbable. The endgame is far more likely to entail a wave of debt write-downs, similar to the one that finally wound up the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980’s.

For starters, there are more bailouts to come, with Portugal at the top of the list. With an average growth rate of less than 1% over the past decade, and arguably the most sclerotic labor market in Europe, it is hard to see how Portugal can grow out of its massive debt burden…

Paul Krugman provides the pertinent data…

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Italian 10 Year bond rates 

Here is the story in an interactive chart and video from the WSJ 

 

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