Ouzo Crisis Timeline

Ever since the "Tequila Crisis" in 1994, when Mexico had to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime to float the peso, financial markets have taken to labeling crises according to the host country's national drink. So we are now witnessing the Ouzo Crisis in Greece.

There are at least 3 teaching points in Greece's crisis and the ensuing contagion.

1) NEVER EVER cook the books. Enron and Worldcom execs learned it the hard way and are no spending time in prison. The elected leaders in Greece were not impressed and apparently lied about the fiscal deficit for years

2) NEVER EVER make promises during a crisis you cannot keep – it makes things only worse. Once the Greek prime minister promised to reduce the deficit drastically, the country was not willing to follow. Immediately public servants, most notably the tax collectors, went on strike. A clear signal that there is little hope that the Greeks will be able to live within their means in the near future.

3) Its deja vu all over again: Ken Rogoff provides some perspective and reminds us (do investors need to be reminded, too?) that "Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained independence in the nineteenth century."

Here is a nice Ouzo Crisis Timeline (requires WSJ subscription). 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.