Political Economy of Austerity

Sad news from Greece (via the economist):

Three people died on Wednesday in a blaze triggered by a fire-bomb tossed into an Athens bank during a march by tens of thousands of striking Greek workers, police said.

Earlier, police fired teargas and stun grenades at demonstrators who tried to force their way into parliament on Wednesday ahead of an emergency debate on a harsh three-year austerity package agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Angry protesters outside the parliament building raised clenched fists and shouted “thieves, thieves” – a traditional Greek expression for corrupt politicians. 

And Eurointelligence confirms the expected:

Some really bad news from Greece – Opposition decides to vote against the deal

The EU/IMF deal will find a majority in the Greek parliament, but last night’s decision by Antonis Samaras, leader of the opposition New Democracy, to vote against the IMF/EU package destroys any hopes of a lasting consensus for reform. It signals a return to the politics as usual at a rather early stage in the adjustment process, and destroys any hope of a national consensus, which is so critical when it comes to the implementation of long-term adjustment programmes. (Remember the IMF said the whole adjustment would take 10 years!) The decision makes it very likely that Greece will not be able to maintain the commitments it made in its negotiations, except in the very short term. 

Seems like the markets decided the program is not implementable, Greece must default, and the question is only the size of contagion. The Euro is in free fall at 1.28… 

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