Same discussion, same situation, issues, just 80 years ago
The Pain Caucus of 1932
Tyler Cowen sends us to Friedrich August von Hayek, T.E. Gregory, Arnold Plant, and Lionel Robbins on October 18, 1932.
I'm trying to get Ryan Avent to let Hayek represent the Pain Caucus on the Economist's
"By Invitation" feature: he's more articulate than most members of
today's pain caucus, and also more upfront in what he wants to see.
Hayek et al.:
Sound familiar?:
We are of the opinion that many of the troubles of the world at the
present are due to imprudent borrowing and spending on the part of the
public authorities. We do not desire to see a renewal of such practices.
At best they mortgage the Budgets of the future, and they tend to drive
up the rate of interest–a process which is surely particularly
undesirable at this juncture, when the revival of the supply of capital
to private industry is an admittedly urgent necessity. The depression
has abundantly shown that the existence of public debt on a large scale
imposes frictions and obstacles to readjustment very much greater than
the frictions an dobstacles imposed by the existence of private debt.Hence we cannot agree with the signatories of the letter that this
is a time for new municipal swimming baths, etc., merely because "people
feel they want" such amenities.If the Government wish to help revival, the right way for them to
proceed is, not to revert to their old habits of lavish expenditure, but
to abolish those restrictions on trade and the free movement of capital
(including restrictions on new issues) which are at present impeding
even the beginning of recovery.
And a little fact-checking. Barrie Wigmore points out:
The low point in government bonds was in January 1932, when the
U.S. Treasury 4 1/4 percent bonds due in 1952 hit $99… thereafter
prices rose… reduced U.S. government bond yields from an average of
3.92% in March 1932 to 3.76% in June…
U.S. debt-to-GDP was to more than quadruple from its 1932 value in
the New Deal and World War II, with no signs at all that such borrowing
was in any way "imprudent."