In the next few days the media will bombard the public with news stories about blockades, demonstrations and protests at the Seattle WTO Ministerial. Democracy, they will claim, is mucking up the works. But the real chaos surrounding the WTO began months ago in Geneva.

The agenda for the Seattle WTO Ministerial has been discussed for three months. The Seattle Ministerial was to launch a Millennial Round that would accomplish many things. It would address issues left over from the Uruguay Round, including agriculture, services, intellectual property rules, industrial tariffs, logging and fishing agreements. But negotiators were unable to come up with an agenda after three months for the Seattle Ministerial, leaving a complicated mess and many open wounds for delegates to sort out in three or four days.

Chances of success in Seattle are either improbable or frankly impossible, depending on who is speaking.

"I just don't see how we can get anything with any real prospects going for the next year," said one diplomat who asked not to be identified by Reuters.

"It's going to be an almighty task, and I wouldn't put the chances at more than 40-60 at best that we will get anything substansive at the Ministerial," said another unnamed envoy.

``We haven't been able to agree on agriculture and that makes it very difficult in other areas,'' U.S. Trade Ambassador Rita Hayes told reporters.

``The whole process has been extremely difficult and is now very confused,'' said the European Union's Trade Ambassador Roderick Abbott.

After WTO envoys in Geneva dropped efforts this week to agree on a text on the launch of a new trade round, European Union's trade chief Pascal Lamy said, "The Europeans are in conflict with the Americans, who would like to talk only about agriculture, very quickly, while we want to talk about everything, not just agriculture, calmly taking our time.''

With 50,000 people planning to hit the streets Tuesday, you might think public opinion is to blame for the current chaos inside the WTO. Perhaps it has had some influence. Protests in Paris, Geneva, Seattle, and other cities have shone a light on the usually secretive organization. Last week Mike Moore, the new WTO chief, reflected with The Economist about the good old days. "The Uruguay (1986) round," Moore remembers longingly, "was launched in the silence of public apathy."

With such chaos in Geneva, hopes of launching the "Millenium Round" are now so faint that most world leaders decided not to attend the Seattle meeting. Free-trade's biggest booster, Bill Clinton, will likely be the only world leader at the party on Tuesday. To avoid embarrassment, the Clinton administration may twist arms to force an agreement behind the scenes through the so-called "Green Room" process. This official statement will be crafted by the most powerful countries in the back rooms, then smaller delegations will be told, "Sign it or else."

Brian Smith

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