Please join us for a reception to celebrate the beginning of the conference. Heavy appetitzers and drinks served.
Maple Hall is two buildings west of the conference meeting rooms in Alder Hall
The Maple Great Room is on the west side of Maple Hall on the ground floor.Chair: Clara Mulder, University of Groningen
Go West Young Woman? The Geography of the Gender Wage Gap from Recession to Recovery
Jamie Goodwin-White, University of California, Los Angeles
Social Impact of Return Migration on Women Returnees
Wenfei Winnie Wang, University of Bristol; Chao Yuan, University of Bristol; Nina Zhang, University of Bristol
On the mobility of women and survival of municipality
Reiko Hayashi, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
Family ties, moving and gender
Clara H. Mulder, University of Groningen
Chair: Suzanne Withers, University of Washington
Cohort Analysis of Population Distribution Change in Japan focusing on Processes of Population Concentration to the Tokyo Region
Yohei Maruyama, Fukui Prefectural University; Moriyuki Oe, Keio University
Is internal migration on the wane? An innovative study of new residential mobilities in Scotland
David McCollum, University of St Andrews; Annemarie Ernsten, University of St Andrews; Allan Findlay, University of St Andrews; Glenna Nightingale, University of St Andrews; Zhiqiang Feng, University of Edinburgh; Nissa Finney, University of St Andrews; Albert Sabater, University of St Andrews
Emerging Pattern of Spatial mobility in India: A state level Analysis of 2011 census
Rabiul Ansary, Jawaharal Nehru University
Chair: Paul Williamson, University of Liverpool
Sprawl and segregation
Lee Fiorio, University of Washington
Moving to move up? Disentangling the link between spatial and occupational mobility
**Ye Liu, Sun Yat-sen University; David McCollum, University of St Andrews; Allan Findlay, University of St Andrews; Zhiqiang Feng, University of Edinburgh; Glenna Nightingale, University of St Andrews*
Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Workforce in India During 1981-2011
Mahendra Bahadur Singh, Banaras Hindu University; Nitin Kumar Mishra, Banaras Hindu University
Understanding the geography of social structure
Paul Williamson, University of Liverpool; Dr Xin Gu, University of Liverpool
Chair: Takashi Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University
Two Population Forecasting Models for Portland, Oregon
Richard Lycan, Portland State University
Population Projections Methods for Community Members
William Warren Munroe, Independent Population Analyst
Small Area Population Projections by Race for the State of Washington Using a Two-Step Smoothing Method
Takashi Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University
Chair: Christiane von Reichert, University of Montana
Turkey’s population and Syrian refugees: What is the limits of hospitality?
Aylin Yaman Kocadagli, Istanbul University
Mental Health Issues and Policy in Sub Saharan Africa: A view from Cape Town to Cairo
A Sathiya Susuman, University of the Western Cape
Does Migration Shape Spatial Patterns of Disability?
Christiane von Reichert, University of Montana
Chair: David Swanson,University of California Riverside
Evaluation of the Subnational Population Projections Accuracy -A comparison of several regression models
Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan; Shiro Koike, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan; Yamauchi Masakazu, Waseda University
An Application of the Weaver Method to Estimating Local Demographic and Industrial Characteristics
Nozomu Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University
Forecasting using Spatial Dependencies
David Swanson, University of California Riverside; Jack Baker, Healthquest, Inc.; Lucky Tedrow, Western Washington University; Jeff Tayman, University of California Riverside
Chair: Rosalie Avila Tapies, Doshisha University
Reconcentration of population into Tokyo Metropolitan area
Satoshi Nakagawa, Saitama University
Location of housing development and changing urban structure in suburban Japanese city with declining population: case study of Sakurai City, suburb of Osaka metropolitan area
Takafumi Kumano, Kyoto University
Japan: a ‘migrant magnet’ for Europeans in crisis. The Spanish case, 2006-2016
Rosalie Avila Tapies, Doshisha University; Josefina Dominguez-Mujica: University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
Chair: Philip S. Morrison, Victoria University of Wellington
The relative certainty of subnational population ageing
Michael Cameron, University of Waikato
Living Arrangement, Local Care Facilities and Residential Mobility of the Elderly Population in Japan: A Multilevel Analysis
Masataka Nakagawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
The child deficit and the changing value of children in Asia
Philip S Morrison, Victoria University of Wellington
Chair: Mark Ellis, University of Washington
Spatial Focusing and the State-to-State Migration of College-Bound Students in the United States
Rachel S. Franklin, Brown University; Alessandra Faggian, Gran Sasso Science Institute
(Dis)location and difference: tracing the educational transitions of young migrants
Helen Packwood, University of St Andrews
Returning to Rural Origins after Higher Education
Aimee Haley, University of Gothenburg
Human capital, locational attractivity, and interstate migration in the United States
Mark Ellis, University of Washington; Richard Wright, Dartmouth College
Chair: Suzanne Withers, University of Washington
In search of non-medical correlates of mortality differentials in cervical and breast cancer – a spatial approach
Patrycjusz Zarębski, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences; Monika Stanny; Adam Czarnecki
Inconsistently Regional: reviewing the unanticipated population effects of European policies on prenatal diagnostics
Shelley Grant, University of Washington
Estimation and Extrapolation of Spatial Trends in Mortality Data using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling
Zhihang Dong, University of Washington
Chair: Steven M. Manson, University of Minnesota
Regional Population Mapping Using International Demographic Data
Joshua Comenetz, U.S. Census Bureau
Challenges with space and time: Spatially harmonized census geography for social science research
Sula Sarkar, University of Minnesota; Lara Cleveland, University of Minnesota
Contemporary Population Geography of Taiwan Indigenous Peoples: A Missing Link of Population
Studies Based on Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data (TIPD)
Ji-Ping Lin, Academia Sinica
IPUMS Terra: Spatial demography engine for analyzing population-environment dynamics
Steven M. Manson, University of Minnesota; Tracy Kugler, University of Minnesota; David Van Riper, University of Minnesota; David A. Haynes II, University of Minnesota
Chair: James Raymer, Australian National University
Simplifying the complex: Alternative measures of bilateral migration
Wei Qi, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography; Guy Abel, Asian Demographic Research Institute Shanghai University & Vienna Institute of Demography
MiSEMIM: Multi-Scale Explanatory Modelling of Internal Migration Patterns
Nik Lomax, University of Leeds; Elin Charles-Edwards, University of Queensland
The Sources and Geographic Diversity of Migrant Population Growth in Australia, 1981-2011
James Raymer, Australian National University
Chair: Darren Smith, Loughborough University
From Seasonal to Permanent Migration: Second-Home Owners and their Propensity for Future Relocation
Adam Czarnecki, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences; Igor Sarman, PhD, Università della Svizzera Italiana
House-sharing populations, living together and new trends
Andreas Culora, Loughborough University; Darren Smith, Loughborough University
Post-separation housing careers in England and Wales: A multilevel panel analysis
Michael J. Thomas, University of Groningen; Rory Coulter, University of Cambridge, Clara H. Mulder, University of Groningen
Rural population change and rural gentrification
Darren Smith, Loughborough University
Chair: Mark Ellis, University of Washington
Why China’s small and medium-sized cities are less active on attracting population?
Shenghe Liu, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Haoran Jing, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Social capitals and rural-urban migrants’ settlement intention in the destination cities: Evidence from urban China
Xu Huang, Sun Yat-sen University; Ye Liu, Sun Yat-sen University; Desheng Xue, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhigang Li, Wuhan University
Analysis of state-sponsored and spontaneous urbanization in Fujian Province of China
Jianfa Shen, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Chair: Anne Green, University of Birmingham
Latin-American and Caribbean immigration to Europe. A cross-country analysis of socio-demographic characteristics
Rosalia Avila-Tapies, Doshisha University; Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco (First Author): Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics and Departament de Geografia, Universitat de Barcelona; Isabel Pujadas Rúbies (Third Author): Departament de Geografia, Universitat de Barcelona
Immigration from Southern Europe to Mexico in time of crisis: Highly-skilled migration or labour migration?
Cristóbal Mendoza, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico City
Repatriating by networks? Israel’s return migration industry
Nir Cohen, Bar Ilan University
Building Britain post Brexit: the changing place of international migrant workers in construction
Anne Green, University of Birmingham
Chair: Clara Mulder, University of Groningen
Go West Young Woman? The Geography of the Gender Wage Gap from Recession to Recovery
Jamie Goodwin-White, University of California, Los Angeles
Despite headline-grabbing accounts of the ‘Man-cession’ and childless metropolitan-dwelling women who earn more than men, the gender wage gap remains persistent. The spatiality of the gender wage gap has received little attention, despite geographers’ historic concerns with patterns of inequality under economic shifts and economic sociologists’ increasingly geographic focus. In this paper, I ask whether, where, and how the gender wage gap changed with The Great Recession. Using American Community Survey pooled surveys for 2005-7 and 2011-13, I model counterfactual wage distributions for full-time male and female workers in the top 100 metropolitan areas of the U.S., controlling for education, age, experience, and occupation. Results indicate that gender inequality is spatially polarizing, both across the wage distribution and across the country, and that the recession exacerbates this pattern. Gender gaps decline most in the Rustbelt, but show relative increases in many Western metropolitan areas (especially the Pacific Northwest and northern California). Further, the declines are mostly amongst below-median earning workers, whereas the increases are most likely to be at the 75th or 90th percentiles. Decompositions show that disproportionate returns to men’s characteristics explain much of these geographic and distributional shifts. The combination of geographical and distributional analysis makes clear that the gender wage gap, even adjusting for labor force characteristics, remains strong. It also reveals a more thorough picture of how gender inequality shifted with the recession, as previous patterns of uneven development under economic restructuring are still evident here. Most importantly, the analysis signposts regions of emerging gender inequality where relative gender equality is often presumed, suggesting critical research directions for feminist and economic geographers.
Social Impact of Return Migration on Women Returnees
Wenfei Winnie Wang, University of Bristol; Chao Yuan, University of Bristol; Nina Zhang, University of Bristol
China has experienced massive rural-urban migration over the past thirty years. Due to institutional constraints and recent economic down turn, sizeable migrants have chosen to return to their home village or home county. This study attempts to examine the social impacts of return migration on returnees, particularly women return migrants. It will adopt a gendered approach to interrogate how return migration has reshaped family and gender relations, household division of labour, childcare and children’s education, and life-style. At the individual level, it will also analyse how women’s well-being, sense of agency and empowerment have been affected by migration. The return decision making process and factors that affecting post-return for the migrant women and their families will also be key elements in analysing the social impacts on women migrants. The empirical analysis will be based on a return migration survey conducted in seven provinces in China in summer 2015 along with in-depth interviews of women returnees in the province of Anhui in summer 2016. The results of the study will help us better understand the deep and wide-ranging social consequences of return migration on women return migrants, their families and their community which have been largely neglected in the existing literature.
On the mobility of women and survival of municipality
Reiko Hayashi, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
Japan, as a population declining society, the survival of a municipality is a keen concern and it has been widely acknowledged that bringing in the young women who would be the mother is crucial. On the other hand, women are the main target to alleviate the shortage of labour and the empowerment of women have been one of the core policies of the actual government. Along with the changing higher education attendance and increasing employment rate, the mobility of women is increasing but not as much as that of men. Using official statistics on internal migration, it is revealed that higher education causes higher probability on intra-prefectural migration regardless of gender but return migration and geographical range of mobility is higher / wider for men than women. This is causing the feminization of urban area but this phenomenon is not limited to Japan. More gender equal municipality tends to yield higher women in-migration but the relation should be examined through the link between the gender equality and economic level.
Family ties, moving and gender
Clara H. Mulder, University of Groningen
Age profiles of residential mobility and migration in the industrialized world are remarkably similar between men and women. Yet, this general pattern hides important gender differences in the causes and consequences of moving. This is true in all stages of the adult life course: from leaving the parental home via relocations for union formation and dissolution, family migration and care-related relocations to moves to institutions. This presentation provides an overview of such gendered life-course patterns of residential mobility and migration. Drawing on a history of more than 25 years of research carried out by team members, collaborators and myself, I highlight the importance of ‘linked lives’ in these gendered patterns, and demonstrate that ties to family – spouses, children living with ex-partners, adult children, parents, siblings – play an important part in them. I also present the contours of the new ERC-funded FamilyTies research project, in which the role of family ties in internal migration will be explored further.
Chair: Suzanne Withers, University of Washington
Cohort Analysis of Population Distribution Change in Japan focusing on Processes of Population Concentration to the Tokyo Region
Yohei Maruyama, Fukui Prefectural University; Moriyuki Oe, Keio University
According to the Report on Internal Migration in Japan, the number of net-migration of the Tokyo Region became minus in 1994 for the first time since 1954 when the statistics began. At that time the idea which population concentration to the Tokyo Region ended was spread. However the number changed into plus again after that and had continued to increase to the level of the bubble economic period of the 1980s although it reduced a little by the Lehman shock around 2008. Will the number of people moving into the Tokyo region continue to excess that of people moving out? Considering the future population distribution of Japan, it is very important to grasp this problem correctly. To think about it, it is necessary not only to focus on the latest phenomenon, but also to look back upon a postwar population distribution change as a result of migration. This study aims at analyzing the relationship between net-migration and the transition of population distribution from the perspective of cohort analysis by 2 regional categories, the Tokyo region and the rest of Japan. This article consists of two parts: 1) pointing out the insufficient coordination of two major theories, the economic or labor market effects and the cohort-size effects, which explain population concentration to the Tokyo Region. 2) evaluation of the transition of population distribution in Japan, in which the rate of concentration to the Tokyo Region by cohort illustrate some quantitative relationships between the two theories at issue.
Is internal migration on the wane? An innovative study of new residential mobilities in Scotland
David McCollum, University of St Andrews; Annemarie Ernsten, University of St Andrews; Allan Findlay, University of St Andrews; Glenna Nightingale, University of St Andrews; Zhiqiang Feng, University of Edinburgh; Nissa Finney, University of St Andrews; Albert Sabater, University of St Andrews
The progression of workers along the occupational hierarchy across the course of their careers has long been a concern of policymakers and social scientists alike. Using the census-based Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) dataset, this research examines individual and place based determinants of occupational mobility, and their relationship to spatial mobility. The originality of the paper relates to the importance of workplace location, rather than residential locations, on occupational mobility, and in the questioning of the idea that spatial mobility accelerates occupational mobility. The findings also indicate that skill level and employment in ‘knowledge intensive’ sectors are key determinants of career progression. Urban career escalator effects are found to be particularly evident for higher skilled workers. The findings point to the importance of spatial sophistication and gender and sectoral sensitivity in understandings of occupational mobility.
Emerging Pattern of Spatial mobility in India: A state level Analysis of 2011 census
Rabiul Ansary, Jawaharal Nehru University
The popular propagation for internal migration in India is a consequence of unequal regional development. Despite India’s impressive economic growth over the past three decades, vast numbers of Indians are unable to secure a meaningful livelihood. Millions of people in India adopted migration as the alternative means of livelihoods. In India, 37.46% population experienced spatial mobility in 2011 census which is higher than the figure of 2001 census (30.78%) of the total population. The marriage-related migration of female contributed more for spatial mobility in India. Overall still, rural people are more migratory than urban people. Rural people are flocking to the urban area for menial work. But the startling increase of urban-urban movements in India in 2011 census is a major issue of the current research along with the rural-urban flow. The Provisional data on migration reported remarkable growth of the internal movement. For the first time in Indian census, the volume of urban-urban migration overtakes the rural-urban migration stream in the last intercensal period. The effect of additional 2700 new census towns in 2011 census may be the real driving force for this staggering figure. Still, rural-urban migration is the major migration stream.
Chair: Paul Williamson, University of Liverpool
Urban Sprawl and Race: Visualizing Urban Population Change in Large U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 1990 to 2010
Lee Fiorio, University of Washington
At the national level, the population of the United States can be described as (1) growing, (2) becoming more urbanized, and (3) increasing in racial and ethnic diversity. At more local levels, however, the spatial the expression of these three population trends is highly uneven, resulting in persistent segregation in some contexts and increasing diversity in others. To study this complex geography, I conduct an analysis of the 52 largest US metropolitan areas and visualize the ways in which populations in four race/ethnicity categories—white, black, Asian and Latino—have undergone change in their spatial distribution between 1990 and 2010 along a measure of relative centrality with respect to the urban core. Findings demonstrate that all four groups have undergone a shift in their population outwards from central neighborhoods and suburbs towards the urban periphery. However, while many inner ring suburbs have increased in racial and ethnic diversity, these gains are diminished as one travels further out from the core to newer suburbs and exurbs whose population growth has mainly been constituted by whites, and to some extent, Latinos. These results provide a framework for assessing the future trajectories of urban spatial development and racial segregation in the US and demonstrate the necessity for understanding these processes in terms of population growth.
Moving to move up? Disentangling the link between spatial and occupational mobility
Ye Liu, Sun Yat-sen University; David McCollum, University of St Andrews; Allan Findlay, University of St Andrews; Zhiqiang Feng, University of Edinburgh; Glenna Nightingale, University of St Andrews
The progression of workers along the occupational hierarchy across the course of their careers has long been a concern of policymakers and social scientists alike. Using the census-based Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) dataset, this research examines individual and place based determinants of occupational mobility, and their relationship to spatial mobility. The originality of the paper relates to the importance of workplace location, rather than residential locations, on occupational mobility, and in the questioning of the idea that spatial mobility accelerates occupational mobility. The findings also indicate that skill level and employment in ‘knowledge intensive’ sectors are key determinants of career progression. Urban career escalator effects are found to be particularly evident for higher skilled workers. The findings point to the importance of spatial sophistication and gender and sectoral sensitivity in understandings of occupational mobility.
Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Workforce in India During 1981-2011
Mahendra Bahadur Singh, Banaras Hindu University; Nitin Kumar Mishra, Banaras Hindu University
The present research paper examines the growth, structure and distribution of workforce engaged as main & marginal workers, cultivators, agricultural labourers, household workers & other workers during 1981-2011. The objectives of this paper are fivefold: (i) to analyze the growth and structural change occurring in workforce at country level;(ii) to examine the spatial pattern of workforce at state level;(iii) to ascertain the intensity of workforce;(iv)to measure the shift in mean point location of workforce employed in various occupational categories; and (v) to compute the future probable trend of workforce.The present study is largely based on secondary data and covers the country as a whole as well as different states (28) and union territories (7) of India. The data pertaining topopulation and workforce have been taken from 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses. Some of the major trends are: the growth in the total workers in India is showing a declining trend;the workforce participation rate is increasing; the marginal workers witnessed 5.4 times enhancement; the proportion of main workers declined whereas the proportion of marginal workers increased; more than half of the total workforce is still engaged in agricultural activities; agricultural labourers witnessed small increase including minor shift from cultivators to this category;the proportion of household workers showed stagnation; the contribution of females accounts for only 31.10 percent in the total workers, 21.60 percent in main workers and 50.80 percent in marginal workers in 2011;with regards to the total workers, sex ratio has increased till 2001 but decreased thereafter; with regards to absolute total workers, Uttar Pradesh ranks number one followed by Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat; these ten bigger states of India account for 77.64 percent of the total workforce of India.
Understanding the geography of social structure
Paul Williamson, University of Liverpool; Dr Xin Gu, University of Liverpool
This paper considers the geographic nature of social structure and seeks to answer three key questions. Which population attributes vary most, spatially? At what scale? What insights does this provide about the society under study? Previous researchers have investigated the spatial variability of one or a few dimensions of difference (e.g. ethnicity; social class), or for selected categories drawn from across a range of dimensions (e.g. unemployed; non-white; elderly; home-owning etc.). Few have taken systematic account been taken of how this variability alters with spatial scale. None have explored variability
Chair: Takashi Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University
Two Population Forecasting Models for Portland, Oregon
Richard Lycan, Portland State University
Planning law in Oregon requires most counties and cities to work cooperatively with the Population Research Center at Portland State University to develop population forecasts. However, the counties in the Portland Metropolitan area are excluded from this requirement and Portland Metro is responsible for developing population forecasts for their land use and transportation planning. The main tool used for their forecasting is Metroscope, an urban simulation model patterned after the work of Herbert and Stevens. Metroscope does not forecast population per se, but forecasts households be age of householder down to the census tract level. It provides additional detail for households by income, housing type and tenure, and presence of children. These forecasts would be very useful to local government agencies and non-profits, but have not been made available to the public in a useable form. The author has developed a tool, a VBA enabled Excel spreadsheet, that provides query tools and creates reports in tabular, graph, and map form. Using these tools, the author found that the census tract level Metroscope forecasts by age of head differed substantially from population forecasts by other organizations. For example, its census tract forecasts (for part of the Metro area) of aging households showed little relationship to a forecast using a Hamilton Perry model, after converting population by age to households by age of head. This is not to say that the Metroscope forecasts are wrong. They capture important elements of land use policy and the behavior of housing markets. On the other hand, older households tend to to age in place and for them the cohort based model may better capture this behavior. The author will extend the Hamilton Perry model to the multi-county region covered by Metroscope, compare the households by age of head with the Metroscope forecast, and discuss the differences between the two models, particularly as the results pertain to older persons.
Population Projections Methods for Community Members
William Warren Munroe, Independent Population Analyst
Overview: Population projections are referred to when considering opening and closing of public and private facilities, as well as for Official Community Plans, electrical generation needs etc.; however, numbers are often difficult, if not impossible, to verify due to specialization or restrictions on input data.
In an effort to address concerns expressed by community members as to how projections, (used to justify closing public schools permanently) were created, an easy to use and understand method, based on open, readily available data was developed. Purpose: To examine Cohort Change Ratios as a method for Community Members to refer to when considering issues related to population change: A Case Study of Canada’s oldest (in terms of median age) municipality. Methods and Data: Census counts by 5-year age / sex cohorts from 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011 are used to generate cohort change ratios to create age / sex distribution projections for 5-year time periods from 2016 to 2041. Canada’s 2016 Census of Population age sex break outs will be released May 3, 2017 and added for comparisons. Projections are created for Canada, across scale (levels of aggregation) to Canada’s oldest (in terms of median age) municipality – Qualicum Beach, Canada’s west coast.4 scenarios are created: low, medium, and high growth, as well as a scenario with economic / migration cycles. 2 variants are considered: 1) no limits set for out-migration of 20 to 29 year olds; 2) assumes the area provides enough social economic activity to support a minimum number of those 20 to 29 years of age. Animated graphic representations are examined, along with dependence ratios. Findings: Cohort change ratios, using open readily available inputs (Census of Population), provide verifiable, reproducible, understandable methods for creating several well-defined population projection scenarios. Fluctuating age distributions creates challenges for communities.
Small Area Population Projections by Race for the State of Washington Using a Two-Step Smoothing Method
Takashi Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University,
Since small area demographics are generally very unstable, the statistical analysis by using such demographics is much likely to lead to unexpected results. In particular, the long-term population projections for small areas has a risk of generating an extremely huge population. For this reason, various methods of estimating the true values of such demographics have been developed or considered, chiefly by statisticians and demographers. Most previous methods essentially perform data smoothing by using demographics of adjacent small areas. The author also developed a new method for estimating small area demographics (ESAD method) in 2014 and 2017. However, similarly to previous methods, the application results of ESAD method depend strongly on how to demarcate the extent of a set of adjacent small areas whose demographics are used for smoothing. If we narrow the extent excessively, the results are significantly influenced by accidental events occurring only inside the demarcated area; otherwise, if we enlarge the extent excessively, the results induce an almost uniform distribution of demographics inside the demarcated area. The author has proposed a two-step smoothing method to solve the above dilemmatic problems, and has already confirmed the efficacy of this method, which is considered to be one of derivative forms of ESAD method. Thus, the purpose of this study is to do long-term small area population projections by race and ethnic origin for the state of Washington using the two-step smoothing method, and to examine to what extent the method is effective for the projections of racial populations. The cohort change ratio method is used for the projections. The results of the examination will be shown at the conference.
Chair: Christiane von Reichert, University of Montana
Turkey’s population and Syrian refugees: What is the limits of hospitality?
Aylin Yaman Kocadagli, Istanbul University
Turkey, a country that occupies a unique geographical position, is situated the meeting point of three continents (Asia, Europe, and Africa) and stands as a bridge between Asia and Europe. In 2016, the population of Turkey is 79.8 million. Including, immigrants who temporarily reside in the country, it is estimated that the total population exceeds 83 million. In recent years, fast demographic transition and socio-economic development in Turkey draw attention in the world. Syria’s civil war has raged on for six years on the southern border of Turkey. Turkey is one of the countries most affected by the war in Syria. Currently, there is an extensive flow of Syrian refugees to Turkey. In April 2017, UNHCR counted 5.031.576 registered Syrian refugees. Turkey hosts 2.973.980 registered Syrian refugees and 8.4% of them (252.061) reside in 22 government-run camps near the Syrian border, while 91.6% living outside the camps. Turkey hosts the highest number of refugees in the world and faces increased pressure to respond to the protection needs of refugees. Inevitably, the situation is causing issues all around the country, especially in border cities. The Syrian refugee situation in Turkey has become an integration and security issue with social, economic and political dimensions. As a result, it has been generally accepted that a policy based only on providing the basic needs of the refugees is unsustainable. While the efforts of the Turkish government to welcome Syrian refugees, the discussions intensify about the resources of Turkish government and society and questions arise about the limits of Turkey’s hospitality. In our study, we will examine the demographic transition of Turkey and present current situation of Syrian refugees in the country. We will investigate the effects of Syrian refugees on the country’s social structure, economy, politics, and security.
Mental Health Issues and Policy in Sub Saharan Africa: A view from Cape Town to Cairo
A Sathiya Susuman, University of the Western Cape
Objective: Although, millions of people in Africa have suffered various forms of mental health, including depression, stress, schizophrenia, alcohol use, epilepsy, Alzheimer and other dementias, little attention has been made towards mental health issues. This study explore any substantial information regarding mental health issues, mental health policies and their legislations in the study area covered from Cape Town to Cairo. Method: Secondary information based on different literature review was adopted using available data from some African countries. Results: Only 22 countries out of 53 in Sub-Saharan Africa have a mental health policy, meanwhile about 41% do not have a mental health policy or plan. Discussion: From a global perspective, mental health problems are critical, particularly in sub Saharan Africa. Therefore, concern Governments, Non-governmental organizations, health institutions and relevant health care service professionals needs to work together. Moreover, countries with already adopted mental health policy should give more attention for monitoring and evaluation.
Does Migration Shape Spatial Patterns of Disability?
Christiane von Reichert, University of Montana
Disability (impairment) rates are higher in rural (nonmetro) than urban (metro) areas. These observations hold up after controlling for age and for different impairment types. Does migration play a role in creating these spatial inequities? Do people without impairments leave rural for urban areas? Do people with impairments show a preference for moving from urban to rural destinations? The Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) of the American Community Survey (ACS) for 2011-2015 are used to explore these questions. 15 million observations from the PUMS are available for PUMAs and MIGPUMAs. To explore rural-urban migration preferences, we use a methodology for approximating rural-urban continua at the PUMA and MIGPUMA level, which admittedly makes for a relatively coarse spatial resolution. Preliminary findings show rather similar migration propensities and patterns for persons with or without disability, suggesting that reasons for spatial inequities in impairment are multifaceted and complex.
Chair: David Swanson,University of California Riverside
Evaluation of the Subnational Population Projections Accuracy -A comparison of several regression models
Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan; Shiro Koike, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan; Yamauchi Masakazu, Waseda University
This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of subnational population projections and to analyze the factors associated with the accuracy using several regression models. In Japan, the government agency responsible for preparing population projections is the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). IPSS has published population projections for the national, prefectural, and municipal levels based on the population census (every 5 years). The prefectural population projection published by IPSS was based on 1985-2010 census population, while the municipal projection was based on 2000-2010 census population. The indexes used in the analysis of accuracies are ALPE (Algebraic Percent Error) and APE (Absolute Percent Error), which is one among many indices used in assessing accuracy. We analyzed the factors associated with ALPE and APE for prefectural and municipal projections using several regression models. The Covariates are base-year population size, base-period net migration rate, Tokyo Metropolitan Area dummy variable, the base year of projections, and lengths of projection horizon etc. The regression models to compare are the pooled OLS model, the panel data model, and the spatial regression models (Spatial Error model and Geographically Weighted Regression model). Through this comparative framework, the research intends to discuss the spatial dependencies, the spatial stationarities of projection errors, and the best fitting model for evaluating the accuracy of subnational population projections.
An Application of the Weaver Method to Estimating Local Demographic and Industrial Characteristics
Nozomu Inoue, Aoyama Gakuin University
Since the seminal analysis demonstrated by Weaver (1954), combination analysis has been widely used for estimation of regional characteristics such as industrial characteristics and demographics. The method was originally proposed for identification of main farm products and geographic boundaries. More recently, it has been widely introduced to other fields such as economic and population geography. Using the national survey on agriculture in Japan, for instance, Nomi (1992) applied the combination method to identify municipal-level variations in agricultural production and to estimate regional boundaries and characteristics of the farming industry in Japan. The conventional method, however, only allows for estimation with one variable, and not multiple variables. In estimating the local industrial characteristics, for instance, various variables are required such as the number of employees and scale of outputs for each industry. While the combination is determined by the share of each variable, the share of each industry can be approximated by the combination patterns. In fact, we compare the results of the estimation using each of the variables, and there are often significant differences in the results at the regional levels. Thus, it has been difficult to evaluate which variable is suitable for the estimation. This study proposes a new method to identify the combinations with multiple variables, and to evaluate the performance of the new method. Our results confirm that the new method generates better performance in the estimation than the conventional method.
Forecasting using Spatial Dependencies
David Swanson, University of California Riverside; Jack Baker, Healthquest, Inc.; Lucky Tedrow, Western Washington University; Jeff Tayman, University of California Riverside
With the explosion of computerized mapping and spatial modeling techniques over the last thirty years, there has been increased interest in developing small-area demographic estimation and forecasting models that incorporate spatial dependencies among geographic units. In this paper, we illustrate small-area Hamilton-Perry (H-P) demographic forecasts that explicitly incorporate spatial dependencies. We also discuss some of the challenges and opportunities using spatial modeling in demographic forecasting.
Chair: Rosalie Avila Tapies, Doshisha University
Reconcentration of population into Tokyo Metropolitan area
Satoshi Nakagawa, Saitama University
Tokyo MA has been experienced population concentration three times since 1950’s. The first concentration, together with Osaka and Nagoya MAs, was observed in the 1960’s in the rapid economic growth period. Massive rural-to-urban migration occurred, mainly propelled by heavy and petrochemical industry located three major MAs and other pacific-side of Japan and male workers were preferred by the employers in the 1960’s. The second population concentration into Tokyo MA was in the 1980s. In those days, Tokyo became one of the major global financial capitals and population concentration was found only at the Tokyo MA. Many foreign companies invaded in the Japanese market settled down in Tokyo and numbers of white-collar workers increased. Population and job distribution between Tokyo and the rest of Japan seemed to become favorable in the 1980’s and no substantial net migration was observable. Many people came to stay within their locality, in particular people with moderate qualification, and only those with higher qualification continued to migrate and settled down in Tokyo MA. This trend caused human resource imbalance and reinforced a regional disparity between Tokyo and the rest of Japan. Since around the 2000, the third population concentration occurs in Tokyo MA. Because of the long economic depression and population decrease in the non-metropolitan area, job opportunity in the region is decreasing and not only the well-educated but also people with moderate qualification are moving to Tokyo MA.
Location of housing development and changing urban structure in suburban Japanese city with declining population: case study of Sakurai City, suburb of Osaka metropolitan area
Takafumi Kumano, Kyoto University
The metropolitan housing markets in Japan have experienced great change since the 1990s. The bubble economy born in the late 1980s and its attendant rising land prices caused active housing development in outer suburbs. The subsequent collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s brought about the end of suburbanization due to decreases in housing demand in metropolitan suburbs. On the other hand, two major structural problems are present in Japan’s housing market: a focus on newly built housing and path-dependent policy promoting housing construction as a way to stimulate the economy after the collapse of the bubble economy. Against that background, this study examines from a geographic standpoint the location of housing development and demolition, and investigates the changing urban structure, focusing on Sakurai City, an outer suburban city faced with a population decline in the Osaka metropolitan area. In the bubble economy, Sakurai City experienced the active development of mid-to-high-rise apartment housing, including condominiums as well as detached housing. Many condominiums were constructed in the central districts with high rents around Sakurai station, while detached houses and low-rise apartments were built on farmland in the outskirts, resulting in both horizontal and vertical expansion of the city’s built-up areas. Since the late 1990s, with a substantial drop in metropolitan land prices, the supply of condominiums has stagnated and the amount of vacant lots and parking lots has increased in the central areas of the city. In contrast, the conversion from farmland into detached housing or low-rise apartments has continued outside the built-up areas. Consequently, Sakurai City has undergone the scattering of housing developments and hollowing-out of the built-up areas in the present phase of decreasing population and land prices, compared to the bubble economy period with its demographic and economic growth.
Japan: a ‘migrant magnet’ for Europeans in crisis. The Spanish case, 2006-2016
Rosalie Avila Tapies, Doshisha University; Josefina Dominguez-Mujica: University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
The number of European citizens coming to Japan for tourism, study, professional training, family issues or employment has increased considerably between the years 2006-2016. In the case of the residents, the figure has increased from 59,995 to 113,233, with one third of them being short-term stayers. The increase of mid-to long-term Europeans living in Japan, however, has not been so remarkable (126.3%), with the few exceptions of Spaniards, Italians and citizens of post-socialist countries. Particularly, the Spanish presence has grown by 190.7%, showing the largest growth rate among the European countries with highest number of citizens in Japan (England, France, Russia, Germany and Italy). As Spain became one of the countries most affected by the global economic crisis, it can be generally assumed that the increase of Spaniards (as well as other south-western Europeans) is related to immigration driven by two factors: the economic crack in Europe and the Japan’s attractiveness as the third largest world economy (low unemployment rate and high living standards). By addressing the issue of the connections between economy and international migration, this paper tests this research hypothesis: the increase and the new demographic profile of south-western Europeans residing in Japan during the last decade is the result of severe economic conditions due to the 2008-2009 and ongoing financial crisis. The study focuses on the Spanish flows, referring, firstly, to the literature and documentation of Spaniards’ emigration during the crisis period, and, secondly, to the data on migration flows and foreign resident stocks in Japan, provided by both Spanish and Japanese official sources, such as the Residential Variation Statistics and the Spanish Census of Spaniards Residing Abroad (National Statistics Institute - INE) and the data of immigration flows and stock of foreigners residing in Japan (Ministry of Justice of Japan - MOJ).
Chair: Philip S. Morrison, Victoria University of Wellington
The relative certainty of subnational population ageing
Michael Cameron, University of Waikato
In this paper, I first describe the development of a new subnational stochastic population projections model at the territorial authority (TA) level. TAs are the smallest political administrative unit in New Zealand, with an average population of about 65,000, and are extremely diverse in terms of their expected demographic and economic futures. The advantage of the stochastic model is that it allows the uncertainty in the future population projections to be explicitly modelled and quantified. I then use the model to demonstrate the demographic trajectories of the TAs in New Zealand, and to quantify the relative certainty of population ageing. To measure population ageing I use a combination of traditional measures (median age, proportion aged 65 years and over) and a novel, axiomatically consistent measure (root-mean-squared age). Consistent with previous research for New Zealand and elsewhere, rural and peripheral areas are projected to have the oldest future populations. Moreover, the relative certainty of ‘hyper-ageing’ (having more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 years and over) is higher in these areas than in urban areas and TAs with an initially younger population. However, some urban areas experience the most rapid ageing and have similar levels of hyper-ageing to the initially-oldest TAs by the 2060s.Finally, I consider the implications of advanced levels of ageing for depopulation at the subnational level. Areas with an initially older population, and those with an in-migration profile that favours older people and/or an out-migration profile that favours younger people and those in prime working ages, first experience high degrees of ageing before eventual depopulation.
Living Arrangement, Local Care Facilities and Residential Mobility of the Elderly Population in Japan: A Multilevel Analysis
Masataka Nakagawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
This paper examines contextual heterogeneity in the association between living arrangement and residential mobility among the elderly population in Japan. For the purpose of this study, individual-level national sample data drawn from the 2011 National Survey on Migration are linked to local-level data on availability of external care resources and care facilities. Using the hierarchical data on over 5,000 individuals nested within 196 communities across the country, multi-level analysis is conducted to examine the contextual effect of local-level institutional care resources on the likelihood of residential mobility among elderly people. At the individual level, those who live with or near their children – within the same municipality – are observed to have lower mobility than those whose children live outside the municipality of their residence. These observations imply that lack of intra-household or kinship-based care resources increases the likelihood of residential mobility among the elderly when they need care and/or assistance. The results of multi-level analysis identify the contextual effect of availability of local care resources and facilities in reducing geographical mobility at the later stage of life. That is, greater availability of external care resources and facilities attenuates the likelihood of residential mobility, regardless of individual-level living arrangement and intra-household or kinship-based care resources. The multilevel estimation results also identity cross-level interaction effects on the likelihood of residential mobility between individual-level living arrangement and local-level care resources. While confirming contextual heterogeneity in the association between living arrangement and residential mobility, these observations suggest the significance of multi-level factors and their interactions in initiating and driving elderly migration.
The child deficit and the changing value of children in Asia
Philip S Morrison, Victoria University of Wellington
“Throughout Asia the decline in the total fertility rate has been accompanied by a growth in the child deficit – the gap between the average number of children people want and the average number they end up having. While Asia may be following the European pattern in this respect what does this imply for the value placed on the contemporary child across the Asian continent? The internally constructed (immanent) values which support the ideal family size change more slowly than the externally imposed constraints (instrumental values) on the number actually born. As a result fertility decline is accompanied by a widening child deficit as births fall further below the ideal. To the extent that immanent values of a generation reflect the number of children born to their parents, the more rapid the fertility decline the wider the child deficit. Empirical support for this proposition is sought in the experience of the 14 Asian countries which administered questions on family values, fertility intentions and number of children in successive World Values Surveys (WVS). While demographic and socio-economic variables play a predictable role in the generation of the ideal and actual number of children the numbers involved depend heavily on the characteristics of countries themselves. Therefore the geographical, historical and institutional context remain fundamental in understanding the level and dynamics of the child deficit across Asia.
Chair: Mark Ellis, University of Washington
Spatial Focusing and the State-to-State Migration of College-Bound Students in the United States
Rachel S. Franklin, Brown University; Alessandra Faggian, Gran Sasso Science Institute
“Analysis of state-to-state migration flows and flows along the urban-rural continuum has a long history in regional science, population geography, and the larger field of demography. In parallel, a body of research has accumulated over the past decade and a half that emphasizes the migration behavior of the college educated – the types of places they leave and go to and the economic impacts of their moving decisions. In general places that can attract and retain human capital are expected to thrive and so economic performance is inextricably linked to ability to attract educated migrants. In the U.S. case, however, a good deal of migration takes place before college, when students move to attend university. This paper seeks to shed light on the migration behavior of this sub-population, in terms of the geography of these movements as well as the potential shifts in human capital that come from movements for higher (or lower) quality institutions. In doing so, the paper contributes to research in both migration flows and human capital distribution by focusing on the migration behavior of the college-bound in the United States. Using institution-level data on the state of residence for college freshmen from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) for 2008, and incorporating information on the quality of the destination college/university, this paper employs the concept of migration spatial focusing to evaluate the human capital redistributive properties of the college student migration system in the U.S. In doing so, it makes three contributions to the literature. First, it adds to our overall understanding of the migration of the college educated. Second, it applies concepts and methods developed almost twenty years ago to characterize the state-to-state migration system in the U.S. Finally, student migration flows are compared to those of the general population.”
(Dis)location and difference: tracing the educational transitions of young migrants
Helen Packwood, University of St Andrews
This paper seeks to contribute to debates about migrant youth transition and responds to a call to bridge the gap between the literatures on race, class and youth transitions (Hopkins 2007). Transition to adulthood is a critical period within the life course; laden with risk, fluid and formative (Schoon & Lyons-Amos, 2016). It is shaped by individual factors and macro-level conditions and has long term implications for individuals, education systems, the labor market as well as wider society. As a result, youth transitions have been the focus of academic and policy-driven research over several decades but there has been a relative neglect of young migrants Drawing on current research into the transitions and trajectories of school leavers in Scotland, this paper is grounded in geographical concepts such as place, space and scale. The study combines quantitative analysis of the Scottish School Leavers Survey (which records the ‘destination’ of all 90,000 Scottish high school leavers annually) and interweaves this with the lived experience of transition through the eyes of young people using qualitative approaches. This talk focusses on the transition of young migrants through and beyond the school education system. First it provides an overview of national patterns and trends highlighting the diversity within and between migrant and ethnic groups. Second, it seeks to understand how young migrants experience transition; dealing with distance and difference and shaped by influences which operate at a range of scales (local to global) simultaneously. This mixed method study raises questions about how we understand migrant youth transitions and the implications this has on the inequalities across the life course.
Returning to Rural Origins after Higher Education
Aimee Haley, University of Gothenburg
Upon ending higher education, students must select a geographical location with which to enter the labor market. Their economic and cultural resources, which contribute to defining their position in social space according to Pierre Bourdieu, have important implications for their destination after higher education. This study contributes a gender-divided analysis of destination after higher education among tertiary educated individuals in Sweden. Through Bourdieu’s social space lens, this study examines the Swedish tertiary educated of rural origin that return to rural locations upon ending their higher education studies. Register data is used to examine individuals of rural origin born between 1973 and 1982 and who studied at a higher education institution in Sweden for at least two years. The population examined is just over 80,000. The most recent data is from 2012. Gender-divided multinomial logistic regression is used to examine how gender, a demographic factor contributing to hierarchical social divisions, mediates the relationship of an individual’s position in social space and their geographical destination after higher education. Findings from this study illuminate the relationship of social hierarchies such as gender and an individual’s economic and cultural resources. Findings from this study also indicate that men and women of similar social space positions do not have the same probability of returning to rural locations after higher education. For instance, individuals who pursued fields of study atypical of their gender are less likely to move to areas where traditional gender structures are more often adhered to, such as rural areas, after higher education. Factors identified as having the greatest influence on returning to rural locations are having children at home, low upper secondary school grades, and low parental income.
Human capital, locational attractivity, and interstate migration in the United States
Mark Ellis, University of Washington; Richard Wright, Dartmouth College
Regional economic development hinges to a considerable degree on the presence and availability of human capital. Skilled workers create direct and indirect multiplier effects in a place: they produce spillovers in work-related realms and catalyze demand for locally furnished good and services in the consumption sphere (Moretti 2012). In this paper, we investigate the state-to-state migration of workers in the United States who have earned an undergraduate degree compared to those who have not. While scholars have examined this question in its basic form by comparing migrants who have a degree with other, our research strikes out in a slightly different direction by unpacking the category “college graduate”. We separate these workers by broad degree field. Not all skills are the same; therefore we expect that people with qualifications in different areas to exhibit different migration patterns. Specifically, we expect those workers with degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) to migrate more, farther, and respond to different labor market signals compared with workers with other sorts of degrees or those workers lacking them entirely. Similarly, we also expect that places that are relatively rich in human capital possess a special draw for STEM migrants. The analysis pays particular attention to age. We posit that the influence of undergraduate specialization has an unspecified half life on college graduate destination choice. Majoring in STEM as an undergraduate, for example, may shape labor market activity and thus migration choices in the years immediately post graduation but 15 or 20 years out its relevance diminishes as training and other skills acquired “on the job” assume greater roles.
Chair: Suzanne Withers, University of Washington
In search of non-medical correlates of mortality differentials in cervical and breast cancer – a spatial approach
Patrycjusz Zarębski, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences; Monika Stanny; Adam Czarnecki
The main aim of this paper is to identify cervical and breast cancer non-medical mortality determinants at the local, territorial scale. The distinct feature of this study is that it pays attention to geographical aspect of cancer mortality by incorporating its spatial autocorrelation. The analysis was done by adopting a large data-set for the overall population of Poland. The areas with the highest rate of mortality were identified by detecting homogenous areas (clusters) and separate cases (hot spots). Thus the spatial regimes of breast and cervical cancer mortality were recognised. Then, the socio-economic characteristics of municipalities were determined based on 60 partial indicators describing demographics, education, economic activities, household wealth, social structure, quality of life (including environment factors) identifying their spatial patterns. The analysis covered ten-year period (2003-2012), although due to the low number of deaths per year at municipal level, a three-year mean was applied to the time series. For breast cancer analysis the sample included 45,551 cases/females while for cervical cancer it included 15,751 cases/females. The surveyed population was standardised for ten-year age groups for the European context. The truncated mortality indexes (ASR) were applied by using direct method for breast and cervical cancers. The methods used in the analysis were Spearman’s rho, tau Kendall statistics and the Local Moran’s I statistics. The major findings: 1) areas of high concentration of breast cancer were found to be favourable in terms of quality of life, i.e. education level, housing conditions; 2) in the case of cervical cancer, high concentration of mortality was observed in demographically younger regions, mostly in ‘problem areas’ (with often high unemployment rate, low level of social participation, high dependency on social assistance) such as post-state farm municipalities distant from regional cities.
Inconsistently Regional: reviewing the unanticipated population effects of European policies on prenatal diagnostics
Shelley Grant, University of Washington
This paper considers the regional population effects of the deliberately heterogeneous European rules on a discreet category of technologically advanced infertility care (ART). It examines the regional and national policies governing prenatal diagnostics and screening (PGD and PGS), processes routinely used to complete donor insemination (DI) and other popular ART methods. Pre-natal tests increase the chance of pregnancy completion and child survival, while allowing socially contested third-party reproductions and pregnancies in at-risk populations of disease carriers and older female patients. Although studies on Europe link divergences in national ART rules to high levels of regional ART activity, analyses on the broader effects of prenatal diagnostics are less common. Unlike the medically standardized ART steps of fertilization and implantation, which are governed by regional protections for health care mobilities and other integration measures, pre-birth diagnostics also fall under the jurisdiction of mandates on genomic medicine use and ethics. This paper examines tensions in national and regional rulemaking on the use of genetic medicine before birth, focusing on regulatory changes in key Western European countries. In distinction from sociologically-minded research that examines the effects of social welfare and population policies (Rindfuss et al. 2010, Kalwij 2010) and medical reviews on infertility care ethics (Pennings 2004, Johnson 2008, Janssens 2010, Van de Kaa 2006), this geographical analysis attends to the impact of regional policy making on critical steps in prenatal health evaluations. Following a review on testing trends and the stated rationales for policy changes, this work considers the need to balance unparalleled expansions in the normalized scope of reproductive responsibilities with the expected benefits of population replacement and improved public health long-term.
Estimation and Extrapolation of Spatial Trends in Mortality Data using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling
Zhihang Dong, University of Washington
Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used in demographers who are interested in analyzing, estimating or forecasting the age-specific mortality rate. However, such trends in age-specific mortality rate are not fully accounted using the typical APC model: one of the missing accounts is the space-time trends of mortality which created overdispersion. Here, using the adjusted-spatial-autocorrelation parameters and the correlated overdispersion parameters, I incorporate a spatial-sensitive Bayesian APC model, which considered the spatial trends. Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is implemented for inference. Compared to a model without a spatial component, the new approach is leading to a more precise relative risk estimates, particularly in areas where ”spatially-sensitive events” such as epidemic and massive social changes that influenced the age-specific mortality rate typically uncaptured by conventional census statistical methods. This model is promising in incorporating temporal trends in the future, which leads to a possibly more exciting time-space APC models for demographers.
Chair: Steven M. Manson, University of Minnesota
Regional Population Mapping Using International Demographic Data
Joshua Comenetz, U.S. Census Bureau
The U.S. Census Bureau is developing new thematic map layers and geo-demographic data sets, building on past experience providing global, subnational age and sex data linked to administrative geography. We are building an international boundary archive that now covers approximately 80,000 subnational areas. Currently, we are expanding the range of variables that we gather, process, and geo-enable. Besides age, sex, and total population, we are now studying ethnicity, language, nationality, race, literacy, income, and poverty. Our efforts have resulted in maps showing demographic patterns in several regions of the world, including Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and India. We plan to create regional map layers that harmonize diverse data produced by many of the world’s 200 national statistical agencies.Census Bureau subnational products include high quality vector and raster map layers covering countries around the world. Data sets and maps already released online include administrative geography and age/sex data for more than 20 countries supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and gridded Demobase population data for Haiti, Pakistan, and Rwanda. While these data have a wide range of applications in government, research, education, and the private sector, our primary goal is to provide the data and maps needed to support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts worldwide. The value of these data for crisis response has been demonstrated, most notably by users of our Haiti products just after the 2010 earthquake.
Challenges with space and time: Spatially harmonized census geography for social science research
Sula Sarkar, University of Minnesota; Lara Cleveland, University of Minnesota
Changes in administrative boundaries from one census to the next pose major challenges for spatial and temporal social science research. Researchers interested in studying change over time should hold space constant to study contextual or spatial effects on behaviors and outcomes. Boundary changes risk polluting analyses with artifacts that obscure real changes over time in social characteristics or environments. This study describes the method by which spatially harmonized administrative boundaries at first and second geographic levels have been constructed in IPUMS-International census data collection. The IPUMS-International project distributes harmonized international census data for more than eighty countries spanning a fifty year period. Creation of spatially-harmonized geographic units requires a series of processing steps which include boundary and map acquisition across all relevant time periods; geographic code to map correspondence between census and map sources; creation of spatially consistent base units; and regionalization (combining) of units to meet confidentiality thresholds. Since geographic-harmonization results in some loss of detail in the geographic information, IPUMS also creates year-specific units and maps. We discuss spatial harmonization challenges, some of which include spatial data acquisition, mismatches between census data and maps, and frequently changing administrative boundaries within countries. We also present some preliminary methods on the importance of geographic unit consistency in cross-temporal internal migration research. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of spatially harmonized and year-specific geography by exploring progress towards some of the sustainable development goals and indicators (SDGs) as highlighted by the United Nations. Disaggregation of national trends into regional or local trends highlights areas of change and stasis and facilitates and improves comparative metrics.
Contemporary Population Geography of Taiwan Indigenous Peoples: A Missing Link of Population
Studies Based on Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data (TIPD)
Ji-Ping Lin, Academia Sinica
This paper aims to provide a population profile in general and population dynamics in specific about contemporary Taiwan Indigenous Peoples (TIPs) from the perspective of population geography, based on Taiwan Indigenous Peoples Open Research Data (TIPD, see https://osf.io/e4rvz/). The paper’s importance lies in the following facts: Taiwan Indigenous Peoples (TIPs) are a branch of Polynesian-Malaysian (or Austronesian) ethnic groups in genetic and linguistic context. They played a crucial role from the perspective of world systems since the great Marine Times in east Asia. Because of TIPs data “Dark Ages” in the period of 1940-2000, population studies regarding contemporary TIPs have been unavailable in the world for a long period. The paper presents a broad research results of population studies on contemporary TIPs. It at first characterizes and provides a general population profile of TIPs from the perspective of population geography. It goes further to present advanced research results on (1) ethnic marriage pattern and source of ethnic identity based on TIPD genealogy data; on (2) birth, mortality, and migration by using TIPD population dynamics. The paper ends up by proposing TIPs HDI (Human Development Index) and making comparison with ordinary Taiwanese HDI and HDIs of representative countries in the world. The presented research results are expected to bridge the knowledge gaps about contemporary TIPs that have been “invisible” in population studies for more than seven decades.
IPUMS Terra: Spatial demography engine for analyzing population-environment dynamics
Steven M. Manson, University of Minnesota; Tracy Kugler, University of Minnesota; David Van Riper, University of Minnesota; David A. Haynes II, University of Minnesota
IPUMS Terra is an NSF and NIH funded cyberinfrastructure project that lowers barriers to interdisciplinary research on population-environment interactions. It supports spatial demography via advances in geocomputation that streamline the process of making data with different formats from different scientific domains interoperable. IPUMS Terra preserves and curates ‘gold standard’ data, integrating information from individual-level and aggregate census data from approximately 400 censuses in over 170 countries, along with global-scale raster datasets describing environmental variables such as land cover and climate. The project is developing new geocomputation methods and accompanying open-source software for integrating data from different domains and translating across data structures. We also discuss ongoing work in which we partner with other institutions to provide web-based and server-based visualization, exploratory data analysis, and modeling. The ultimate goal of these advances is to create a cyberinfrastructure that provides spatial demography tools and data for scholars and policy makers, giving them the means to discover and use data from heterogeneous sources to study the relationships between human behavior and the natural world.
Chair: James Raymer, Australian National University
Simplifying the complex: Alternative measures of bilateral migration
Wei Qi, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Raya Muttarak, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography; Guy Abel, Asian Demographic Research Institute Shanghai University & Vienna Institute of Demography
There exist a limited number of indicators that provide meaningful and comparable measure of bilateral migration. While migration flow counts are useful in showing the volume of movements they fail to control for heterogeneity in the population sizes of regions. Migration rates (or intensities) adjust for population size of either the sending or the receiving region, but not both. Alternative bilateral measures often lack intuitive interpretations. To describe migration trends and the magnitude of the flows requires a measure of migration that accounts for functional linkages between regions and allows for a direct comparisons across geographical units and time. To this end, this paper proposes an alternative method to measure bilateral migration. This new method is an improvement over existing measures of bilateral migration as it 1) captures interactions between places of origin and destination; 2) accounts for origin and destination population size; and 3) provides an relatively easy to interpret index. This paper proposes a measure of bilateral migration between which adjusts for the population sizes of both the origin and destination region. Our Population-Adjusted Migration Affinity (PAMA) index enables us to describe migration system of different sizes. It can be used to quickly identify the most prominent migration corridors between origin and destination regions. Using examples of global inter-continental population migration flows during 2010-2015 and China’s inter-provincial floating population migration in 2010, we illustrate its application at various geographic levels. The contribution of this measure include: 1) Improvement over simple counts of bilateral migration flows; 2) Allow for a comparison of strength of migration linkages between regions; 3) Allow for a comparison across geographical units and time periods.
MiSEMIM: Multi-Scale Explanatory Modelling of Internal Migration Patterns
Nik Lomax, University of Leeds; Elin Charles-Edwards, University of Queensland
In this project, Spatial Interaction Models (SIMs) are developed which incorporate explanatory covariates of internal migration at different spatial scales. Using the IMAGE Studio (Stillwell et al. 2004) a number of spatial systems, from small areas to regions, are constructed from ‘Base Spatial Units’ (BSUs). The migration flows between these BSUs are reported. In addition, explanatory covariates (e.g. population size and unemployment rates) are produced to match these spatial systems. This paper has two aims: (1) to provide assessment of the covariates which explain migration behaviour at a number of different geographic scales in the UK; and (2) to outline extension of the modelling framework to international comparison of internal migration patterns and explanatory covariates within different countries. The UK is chosen to develop the method because of good data availability from the 2011 Census of population. The importance of covariates in explaining the observed migration patterns is likely to differ at various spatial scales because of the types of move people make (e.g. residential mobility at small scale vis-a-vis employment related migration at larger scale). Using the IMAGE studio means we are not limited to conventional hierarchical geographies. Cross national comparison of patterns and propensities is usually limited to comparison of national patterns (e.g. e.g. Rogers et al, 1978). This is because (1) it is difficult to compare countries where the geographical units are very different and (2) data availability varies considerably between countries. Aside from some notable exceptions has been limited work on cross-national explanatory comparisons of migration patterns using SIMS. Initial results demonstrate that for the UK it is distance which has the largest impact on migration, followed by population size. By comparison, initial results for Australia show that a state dummy and the contiguity of areas have a far larger impact than distance.
The Sources and Geographic Diversity of Migrant Population Growth in Australia, 1981-2011
James Raymer, Australian National University
Australia has one of the largest percentages of migrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their population changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age, sex and geographic region is not possible due to differences in measurement and sources of information. In this paper, we utilise reconciled demographic accounts from 1981 to 2011 for 18 migrant groups to describe how the migrant populations have changed across 47 regions in Australia. We find the sources of migrant growth have varied considerably by country of birth and period of time. Migrants from Europe are currently the oldest and slowest growing populations, whereas those from elsewhere are growing rapidly and exhibit relatively young population age structures. Studying these patterns over time helps us to understand the nature of migration and its contributions to population change.
Chair: Darren Smith, Loughborough University
From Seasonal to Permanent Migration: Second-Home Owners and their Propensity for Future Relocation
Adam Czarnecki, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences; Igor Sarman, PhD, Università della Svizzera Italiana
Due to most recent restructuring of local economies (decline of agriculture and other primary industries) numerous rural communities in Europe have been facing dramatic outmigration, depopulation and distortion of socio-demographic structures. These are prevailing tendencies observed currently in many remote communities suffering from endogenous resources shortages and hence having limited potential to reduce depopulation and its effects.At the same time, despite those hardships rural communities have become increasingly attractive places of residence and leisure for urban migrants, including seasonal incomers as second-home owners. Recent studies have proved changing spatial patterns of the second-home phenomenon, with shifting concentration of cottages, holiday homes and secondary residences from once the most appealing immediate surroundings of large cities and traditional tourism-based communities towards remote and depopulated areas considered generally as less attractive zones for leisure activities. In this context, question about the role of second homes in retaining the vitality of rural areas arises, particularly concerning situation in peripheral communities being the most vulnerable to highly selective outmigration and depopulation, i.e. whether and to what extent second homes (seasonal migration) can prompt permanent migration to remote locations in the future? The purpose of this study was to assess the significance of second-home phenomenon in mitigating the effects of rural depopulation based on intentions to relocate permanently to rural areas expressed by second-home owners. The analysis employed data collected from qualitative studies conducted in two countries Poland and Finland through direct interviews and postal survey with 400 and 467 respondents respectively. The backward stepwise regression was used as the main analytical tool to identify factors that incline (or prevent) second-home owners to future permanent migration to current second-home location.
House-sharing populations, living together and new trends
Andreas Culora, Loughborough University; Darren Smith, Loughborough University
In the UK, Housing in Multiple Occupation (HMO) has dramatically emerged as a key dimension of local housing markets and population change across the UK during the last three decades. The proliferation of HMO has been rapid and penetrated into many towns and cities across the UK, changing the demographic profiles of many places. However, few attempts have been made in academia to understand the processes governing and facilitating the proliferation of HMO (for exceptions see Smith, 2012; Ward, 2014) in a full range of towns and cities. This presentation integrates a range of quantitative and qualitative research methods to explore the diverse processes which underpin the population geographies of HMO, before exploring how different population geographies of HMO are connected to wider social processes of social change. The focus of the research is on the case study of Loughborough, UK, but the exploration of HMO geographies in the university town have wider implications for localities and populations across the UK. Given the growing housing affordability crisis and ‘broken housing thesis’ in the UK, this paper will discuss the increasingly important role that HMO and the practice of house-sharing is playing within the UK housing market. Furthermore, the increasing prevalence of house-sharing in other international contexts suggests that this is an emerging social norm that is here to stay.
Post-separation housing careers in England and Wales: A multilevel panel analysis
Michael J. Thomas, University of Groningen; Rory Coulter, University of Cambridge, Clara H. Mulder, University of Groningen
Co-residential separation can be a major turning point in the life-course, with previous research highlighting the deleterious link between partnership dissolution and housing instability. However, much existing research is limited to the housing trajectories of men and women exiting homeownership after separation. This paper extends its focus to include private and social renting and non-independent sharing, and employs a multilevel life-course approach to identify the role of various individual and former household characteristics, welfare systems, housing market geographies and subsequent post-separation life-course career transitions. As such, the analysis draws on geo-coded data from waves 1-18 of the British Household Panel Survey and utilises a cross-classified multilevel panel approach to account for ex-couple correlations, individual time-constant unobserved heterogeneity and the influence of housing market contexts, both prior and subsequent to separation.
Rural population change and rural gentrification
Darren Smith, Loughborough University
This paper will present findings from a cross-national ESRC-ORA project investigating international rural gentrification in USA, France and UK. The paper will explore cross-national similarities and differences in the forms and dynamics of rural gentrification. Using census data, it will be shown that there are important geographic differentials and signatures of rural gentrification, which are tied to housing market, labour market, cultural and demographic differences at regional and national levels. A new conceptualisation of rural gentrification will be presented to conceptualise these geographic contingencies.
Chair: Mark Ellis, University of Washington
Why China’s small and medium-sized cities are less active on attracting population?
Shenghe Liu, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Haoran Jing, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Population size reflects the vitality of a city and provides a basis on the understanding of urbanization. Small and median-sized cities play various roles in city system among different regions or countries. And their population distribution could give us useful guidance for making population policies in these cities. China government has a long tradition for encouraging population aggregation in small and medium-sized cities, while the fact is always opposite with these policies. Based on population census data in 2000 and 2010, we discuss population increase of China’s small and medium-sized cities and their contribution rate for urbanization from 2000 to 2010, then analyse the influencing factors of population increase. We found that: (1) although small-median sized cities occupied nearly 90 per cent of whole city quantity, its population ratio was much lower and still decreasing. From 2000 to 2010, population size of these cities increased from 153 million to 173 million. Their growth rate was 32.9 per cent, which was less than the half of that in large cities, and their contribution for urbanization was less than 20 per cent; (2) the influencing factors of population change show obvious difference between small-median sized cities and large cities. The former ones were mostly influenced by economy growth, urban-rural gap, public service factors, and the latter ones were only determined by economic factors; (3) city-size hierarchy in different provinces shared different rules. Urbanization in most provinces was promoted by large cities. Otherwise, urbanization in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Jiangxi and Guizhou province was promoted by medium-sized cities, and that in Gansu, Yunnan and Xizang province was driven by small cities. In future studies, we should improve the position of small-median sized cities in city system and reserve the decline trend of their contribution rate for urbanization.
Social capitals and rural-urban migrants’ settlement intention in the destination cities: Evidence from urban China
Xu Huang, Sun Yat-sen University; Ye Liu, Sun Yat-sen University; Desheng Xue, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhigang Li, Wuhan University
China has experienced an unprecedented surge of rural to urban migration since the mid-1980s, which has led to rapid growth of the urban population, especially in major cities. This paper analyzes the effects of social capitals on China’s domestic migrants’ settlement intention in the destination cities, in light of evidence from eight municipalities of urban China. One major objective is to contrast migrants’ newly-built social capitals in the place of destination with their existing social capitals from the place of origin; the other purpose is to explore the impacts of links to local community on migrants’ settlements intention. Our empirical part is based on the dataset from an official survey of nearly 15,000 migrants conducted by the National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013. Employing multilevel logit regression model, the analysis shows that migrants’ newly-built social capitals in the place of destination appear to be positive for their intention to stay permanently, for instance, the social networks with local colleagues, friends and government officers. In contrast, their existing social capitals from the place of origin (relatives, countryman and friends who migrated out together) are statistically insignificant to predict migrants’ settlement intention. With respect to the links to local community, the provision of community public service and migrants’ participation in the neighborhood committee are significantly positive to predict their intention to stay in the city. These results suggest that, compared to the social ties to the place of origin, migrants’ social ties to the place of destination play a more important role in their consideration of migration future, especially when they construct the links to local communities.
Analysis of state-sponsored and spontaneous urbanization in Fujian Province of China
Jianfa Shen, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
This paper analyzes the urbanization process in Fujian, China, from the perspective of dual-track urbanization. The analysis is mainly based on 67 county-level units. The spontaneous track of urbanization is a new process of urbanization in China emerged in the reform period. It plays an important role in linking urban and rural areas. This paper examines the relative roles of spontaneous and state-sponsored urbanization and their impacts on the spatial pattern and structure of urbanization in Fujian. It is found that rural to urban migration plays the most significant role while state-sponsored urbanization and rural urbanization play equal roles in the process of urbanization. There was a significant shift of state-sponsored urbanization from county-level cities and counties to urban areas of central cities, Fuzhou and Xiamen, and from inland area to coastal area after 1990. There have also been significant shift and growth of temporary population towards the central cities in the reform period.
Chair: Anne Green, University of Birmingham
Latin-American and Caribbean immigration to Europe. A cross-country analysis of socio-demographic characteristics
Rosalia Avila-Tapies, Doshisha University; Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco (First Author): Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics and Departament de Geografia, Universitat de Barcelona; Isabel Pujadas Rúbies (Third Author): Departament de Geografia, Universitat de Barcelona
Immigration from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has been one of the main non-EU migrant inflows to Europe during the years prior to the global financial crisis, particularly in the countries of southern Europe with greater historical and diasporic linkages with the region, such as Spain, Portugal and Italy. As a result, near 4.5 million people born in LAC are living in Europe, half of them in Spain (2.26 million), although they represent large diasporic communities in Portugal (26% of non-EU foreign residents), Netherlands (24%) or Italy (15%). Economic expansion in receiving countries and recurrent financial crises in countries of origin contributed to the growth and intensity of the inflows since the 1990s. This migratory pattern had its precedents in migration channels resulting from colonial links as well as from some political determinants, such as the military dictatorships of the 1970s and 1980s, or crime and violence in Central America, in particular. With this paper, we aim to provide a broader view of LAC countries’ migration to Europe by examining the evolution of flows and the socio-demographic characteristics of immigrants, as well as their settlement patterns at a continental scale. We use Eurostat data as presented in the common dataset Census Hub, which allows us to establish a detailed socio-demographic portrait of the foreign-born residents living in Europe, from the European Population and Housing Census conducted in 2011 for the EU and EFTA countries. The strong growth and expansion stage of the inflows to Europe ended with the economic crisis of 2008. However, the existence of an extensive migration network, in addition to the socio-economic situation of LAC countries and coupled with the difficulty of entering the US, may trigger greater migration to Europe and consolidate the pre-crisis migration pattern.
Immigration from Southern Europe to Mexico in time of crisis: Highly-skilled migration or labour migration?
Cristóbal Mendoza, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico City
The paper presents results of a research project on skilled immigrants from Italy and Spain in four Mexican cities (DF, Guadalajara, Monterrey and Puebla). Mexican cities may look as attractive destinations for qualified migrants especially after the 2008 international crisis which has extensively affected Southern Europe. By contrast, Latin American countries have maintained relatively high growth rates and low unemployment. In this context, Mexican cities may be seen as attractive places for both workers and capitals. The paper fills a gap in the literature since immigration has not been extensively studied in Mexico. The methodology of the project is basically qualitative, and is based on 129 semi-structured interviews with immigrants from Spain and Italy in Mexico. Specifically this paper explores reasons to migrate, labour trajectories and mobility within Mexico. The large number of interviews allows study skilled immigrants of different generations. By doing so, it compares labour trajectories before and after 2008 international crisis. Certainly the project offers data on skilled flows, and throws new light on the mechanisms through which flows are channeled in context of crisis. The paper argues that, especially for the young ones, immigrants may have their labour prospects hamper in their countries of origin and try the international migration “adventure” as an opportunity to develop the skills Spanish (or Italian) labour markets do not value. Taking this into account, the paper explores the dynamics of local labour markets, its possible niches for the qualified ones, and mechanisms through which immigrants get access to technical and managerial posts in the country. Preliminary results point to inefficiencies in Mexican urban labour markets (plus segmented access to information shared by immigrants) being opportunities windows in Mexico for the interviewees.
Repatriating by networks? Israel’s return migration industry
Nir Cohen, Bar Ilan University
Scholarly research on migration industries has underscored the devolution of state functions to private and other non-state actors (NSAs). Studies often treated these actors as exogenous to the state, arguing that their involvement in the conception or implementation of migration-related projects is enabled by - and benefits from - states’ gradually receding roles in this domain. With few exceptions, the collaborative nature of many such projects was largely neglected, as has the theorization of the co-constitutive relations of state and non-state actors, which underpin them.This paper examines Israel’s return migration industry, arguing that projects of highly-skilled repatriation are increasingly co-produced and carried out by a widening range of public, private and civic bodies. Informed by a networked governance approach, which dictates greater inter-organizational collaborations between a loosely connected set of actors in both Israel and overseas, it enables the Israeli state to govern repatriation all while nurturing a loyal mass of profit-seeking partners. Through the analysis of two recent policy measures aimed at mobilizing skilled Israeli migrants, the paper attends to the roles, functions and spatialities of non-state actors, and illustrates the extent to which the skilled return migration industry blurs traditional boundaries between - and re-shuffles traditional roles of - state and non-state groups.
Building Britain post Brexit: the changing place of international migrant workers in construction
Anne Green, University of Birmingham
Historically the construction sector has had a greater reliance than average on internal or international migrant labour. To some extent this reflects the project-based nature of major construction projects and contractors’ needs for numerical flexibility amongst their labour force. Labour Force Survey data for summer 2015-spring 2016 show that 126,000 construction workers had entered the UK during the previous ten years, comprising 5.6% of the UK’s construction workforce. Of these individuals 60% lived in London. The single largest numbers of recent arrivals were from Poland and Romania: both European Union (EU) Member States where, along with the UK, there is freedom of movement. The literature suggests that employing organisations value migrant workers for their flexibility, work ethic, skills and for contributing to a diverse workforce and innovation. As such they make a significant contribution to the construction workforce at all skills levels. At the time of writing there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the nature of the future UK immigration system and the future status of migrant workers themselves in the wake of the majority ‘Leave’ vote in the June 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. The UK Government has indicated that with Brexit free movement will be ended; instead points-based, work permits, regionally differentiated, sector-specific and low-skilled worker schemes are being discussed. This paper profiles the main features and importance of international migrant workers in the UK construction sector, especially in London and south-eastern England vis-à-vis other regions. It discusses the concerns of migrant workers themselves and of key construction sector stakeholders with regard to how the sector will find the labour and skills it needs - in both the short- and long-term - to deliver major house-building programmes and large-scale infrastructure projects post Brexit.