January 28, 2020

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Authors built a transmission model for the outbreak. Note that the model is limited by the assumptions made in constructing it. Key predicted measures are:
  • R0 of 3.6 – 4.0 
  • Only 5.1% (95% CI 4.8-5.5) of Wuhan infections are identified, meaning around 95% are going fully undetected. 
  • By February 4, 2020 the model predicts:
    • Over 190 thousand cases in Wuhan alone.
    • Countries of greatest risk for imported infections will be Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
    • Even with near perfect travel restrictions to and from Wuhan, the outbreak outside of Wuhan would be reduced by only 24.9%.

Read JM et al. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549