January 29, 2020

This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher 2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Using daily case reports from China CDC, researchers estimate the effective reproductive number (R, not R0) for 2019-nCoV. R is the number of secondary cases expected for each infectious case once an epidemic is already underway. 
  • R is estimated as 4.08, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (2.76) and Guangzhou (3.01). 
• They also predict the future outbreak profile, and in doing so evidence suggests that human-to-human transmission likely began before 12/16/2020, contradicting current estimates. 
• Case fatality is estimated to reach 6.5%, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (7.66%) and Guangzhou (3.61%).

Cao et al. (Jan 29, 2020). This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher

2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate. Pre-Print. http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952