Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 30, 2020

Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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  • Researchers aimed to quantify the effectiveness of traveler screening for 2019-nCoV. Even under ideal screening assumptions, around half of infected travelers are likely to be missed. Most missed cases are asymptomatic, undetectable, and unaware of their exposure. The paper offers helpful visuals to support decision making. An interactive Shiny App is available as well. 

Gostic et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Pre-Print. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.28.20019224v1