January 31, 2020

Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Researchers estimated burden on isolation and intensive care units in Wuhan accounting for the effect of successful public health intervention and diagnosis rates. With a 50% diagnosis rate and in the absence of any public health intervention efforts, the number of infected cases is anticipated to exceed other reported estimates (as of Jan 31), producing tremendous burden on the health care system. If public health interventions are 70% effective, the burden would be reduced significantly. 
• Findings emphasize the importance of public health efforts to reduce transmission.  

Ming et al. (Jan 28, 2020). Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China. Pre-Print. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.922443v2