January 31, 2020

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R0 of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone. 
• Findings suggest a strong likelihood of self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally, especially where asymptomatic travel persists in the absence of strong public health intervention and movement restrictions. They call for strong personal and public health prevention measures in all cities with regular travel structures to and from Wuhan and other cities with known sustained transmission.

Wu et al. (Jan 31, 2020). Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9
Summary press conference slides: https://www.med.hku.hk/f/news/3549/7418/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak_AN-UPDATE_20200127.pdf