Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 4, 2020

Early dynamics of transmission and control of 2019-nCoV: a mathematical modelling study



  • In locations with “similar transmission potential as Wuhan,” three or more introduced cases will lead to a more than 50% chance of the infection becoming established in that locale 

Kucharski, et al. Pre-print downloaded 2 Feb, 2020 at,