Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 4, 2020

Estimating the risk on outbreak spreading of 2019-nCoV in China using transportation data



  • Using information from an International Air Transport Data database, SIR modeling techniques, and R0 estimates ranging from 1.4-2.9, critical timeframes for outbreak emergence (establishing transmission in a new locale) range from about 18-30 days. To gain 30 days in these scenarios, control measures must reduce connections between locales by 87-95%.

Yuan HY, et al. Pre-print downloaded 4 Feb, 2020 at,