February 5, 2020

Risk assessment of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreaks outside China

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Boldog, et al. model the risk for 2019-nCoV outbreaks outside China by developing local reproduction numbers (Rloc) that incorporate factors affecting epidemiology in China and new locations, and their connectivity. 
• Countries should balance controlling spread after introduction with preventing introduction. Countries with a low ability to control spread should focus on travel restrictions and traveler screening; whereas those better able, should focus on internal control activities. (Those in between should balance both.)

Boldog P, et al. (Feb 5, 2020). Risk assessment of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreaks outside China. Pre-Print downloaded on 5 Feb, 2020 from, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020503v1