Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 6, 2020

Epidemiological parameter review and comparative dynamics of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human coronavirus, and adenovirus

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  • Spencer, et al. examine five virus groups (influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, adenovirus, and human coronaviruses) that often contribute to the total category of “influenza-like-illness” (ILI). They estimate human coronaviruses account for around 8.8% of ILI cases annually. Epidemiologic characteristics are compared between human coronaviruses and the other four virus groups assessed. 
    • Incubation period, 1.9-14.7 days. This is potentially longer then influenza (1-6.3 days) or rhinovirus (0.4-5.5 days); inclusive of RSV (3-8 days); and potentially less than adenovirus (1-30 days)
    • Infectious period, 7-35 days. This is potentially longer than any of the other viruses (influenza, 1-9 days; rhinovirus, 7-16 days; RSV, 1-21 days; and adenovirus, 7-17 days)
    • Hospitalization period, 1.5-11 days. Rhinovirus is the narrowest range (0.4-1.7 days); RSV, the widest (2-17.5 days). Influenza (3.5-11.3) and adenovirus (3.1-7 days) are mostly within range.
    • Hospitalization proportion, 0.2% to 52%. By comparison adenovirus is 1.4% to 95%; RSV, <<0.1% to 29%; influenza, <<0.1% to 6.2%; and rhinovirus, 0.9% to 2.4%.
  • Case fatality proportion, 0-34%. At the upper end, this value is higher than any of the other viruses considered (upper ranges: adenovirus, 16%; RSV, 16.5%; influenza, 8.3%; and rhinovirus, 12.5%) 
    • R0 range, 2.7 to 8. Rhinovirus (1.2-1.8) and influenza (1.1-3.4) have narrower ranges; RSV, a wide range (1.2-9.1). Adenovirus has a single value (2.3)

Spencer, et al. (Feb 5, 2020). Epidemiological parameter review and comparative dynamics of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human coronavirus, and adenovirus. Pre-Print downloaded on 6 Feb, 2020 from, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v1