February 10, 2020

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Transmission

• Time between diagnosis and death/recovery in addition to underreporting of cases will have tremendous spatiotemporal variation globally. 
  • Wuhan case fatality estimates are likely overestimated due to vast underreporting of mild and asymptomatic cases. 
  • Delayed identification of 2019-nCoV deaths outside of Wuhan could mean that case fatality estimated based on non-Wuhan cases underestimate true case fatality. 
  • Geographic differences in case fatality could be related to structural factors, like access to health care and the type of health care available. 

Manuel et al. (Feb 7, 2020). 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution. Swiss Med Wkly. https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203