Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 10, 2020

Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases

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  • Using clinical, travel history, and disease progression information for 46 2019-nCoV cases who traveled from Wuhan before Jan 23 and were subsequently confirmed elsewhere, researchers attempted to model transmission dynamics with more precision than previous reports by simulating infection time. 
  • Findings suggest a much higher epidemic growth rate in the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan than previous reports, with a 2.9 day doubling time. 

Zhao et al. (Feb 9, 2020). Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases. Pre Print downloaded Feb 10 from http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941