Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 11, 2020

Preparation for Possible Sustained Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Lessons From Previous Epidemics

Category:

Topic:

  • Swerdlow and Finelli review information from modeling studies of earlier epidemics and pandemics to assess global preparedness for sustained transmission of an emerging viral disease with high transmissibility and severity. Examples cited were H1N1, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV. 
  • Models suggest that: 
    • Assuming no intervention in a US population, a model mixing a range of influenza transmission and severity parameters indicated that clinical attack rates of 20-30% (per H1N1pdm09) could lead to 669,000-4,300,000 hospitalizations and 54,000-538,000 deaths, depending on severity.
    • Without a vaccine, school closures would be unlikely to affect spread.
    • 35,000-60,000 ventilators would be needed, as would ~7.3 billion surgical masks/respirators
    • Vaccine development before introduction of the new pathogen would be required to avoid a significant number of hospitalizations and deaths.
  • It is too early in the 2019-nCoV epidemic to determine the combination of transmissibility and severity posed by this virus. However, influenza mitigation plans would be useful to enact should the US see sustained 2019-nCoV transmission.

Swerdlow DL and Finelli L (Feb 11, 2020) Preparation for Possible Sustained Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Lessons From Previous Epidemics. JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761285