Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 12, 2020

Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States

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  • The upper bound for basic reproduction number, R, in the current US context is estimated based on the number of imported primary cases and secondary cases, and using a maximum likelihood technique. R is found to be less than 1 (subcritical) at this time. Depending on the value of a dispersion parameter reflecting heterogeneity of spread [see above], 2-9 secondary cases from 10 imported cases would be required for R to exceed 1.

Blumberg S, et al (Feb 11, 2020) Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States. Pre-print. Accessed Feb 12 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021311v1