February 18, 2020

Impact of seasonal forcing on a potential SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Researchers use data on the seasonal variation of four endemic coronaviruses to model the effect of seasonal variation on a potential COVID-19 pandemic. They conclude that seasonality may, in combination with infection control processes, contribute to a slowing of the outbreak but that it seems likely this virus will shift into a seasonal endemic pattern like other coronaviruses. 

Neher et al. (Feb 17, 2020). Impact of seasonal forcing on a potential SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Pre-print downloaded Feb 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806