Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 18, 2020

Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID―19 in Wuhan

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  • Tomie modelled COVID-19 incidence data for Wuhan, Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and mainland China excluding Hubei. The model suggests that the number of new cases outside of Wuhan will be negligible by the end of February if the current trends do not change. Daily fluctuation in Wuhan makes predicting the end of the outbreak there more difficult. 

Tomie (Feb 14, 2020). Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID―19 in Wuhan. Pre-print downloaded Feb 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022251