February 19, 2020

Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Using public national data out of China, researchers attempted to predict the trajectory of the outbreak, estimating optimistically that the outbreak would be over by the end of February in Beijing and Shanghai and in the rest of mainland China by mid-march. The outbreak in Wuhan was estimated to end in early April. As always, papers that model the trajectory of an outbreak should be interpreted with caution. 

Peng et al. (Feb 18, 2020). Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. Pre-print downloaded Feb 19 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465