Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 21, 2020

Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China

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  • Accounting for potential unrecorded migration, these authors estimate the scope of COVID-19 importations in countries outside of China. They compare reported and estimated number of cases and describe countries that may be at elevated risk of local transmission. The U.S. is among the countries with higher estimated risk of a local outbreak. 

Sun et al. (Feb 20, 2020). Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China. Pre-print downloaded Feb 21 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.17.20024075.