Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 21, 2020

Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19

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  • Diao et al. estimate the cure rate and case fatality for COVID-19 patients in Wuhan and the rest of mainland China using data on hospital discharges to support more precise modelling. They estimate that in mainland China, 93% of patients recover compared to 87% in Wuhan. These numbers suggest a case fatality among known patients of around 7% which is comparable to previous SARS estimates.

Diao et al. (Feb 20, 2020). Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Feb 21 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024513