Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 25, 2020

Effectiveness of intervention strategies for Coronavirus Disease 2019 and an estimation of its 1 peak time

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  • Pan et al. developed two mathematical SEIR models to simulate the current COVID-10 outbreak. The models predicted decline of the basic reproductive number R0 from 5.75 to 1.69 in Wuhan and 6.22 to 1.67 elsewhere in China from 19 January to 16 February 2020. The results also predict the peak of new asymptomatic cases per day, new symptomatic infections, and COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan. Models suggest that the number of confirmed cases may decrease to less than 10 on March 27 in Wuhan and March 19 in the other parts of China. 

Pan et al. (Feb 23, 2020). Effectiveness of intervention strategies for Coronavirus Disease 2019 and an estimation of its 1 peak time:  Pre-print downloaded Feb 25 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025387