Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 27, 2020

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

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  • Hilton and Keeling, in their estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices, predict that R0 will be highest across Eastern Europe and Japan, and lowest across Africa, Central America and South-Western Asia. They argue that this pattern is largely driven by the demographics; ratio of children to older adults in each country and the observed propensity of clinical cases in the elderly.

Hilton and Keeling (Feb 27, 2020). Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices Pre-print downloaded Feb 27, 2020 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028167