Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 2, 2020

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

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  • Modeling of disease transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship offers insight into the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Removing ill passengers and quarantining all others may have reduced the incidence of COVID-19 from 79% to 17%, translating to roughly 2,307 prevented cases by Feb 19. However, modelling also indicates that earlier evacuation of crew and passengers would have prevented even more cases. Conclusions may be transferrable to similarly dense and confined populations. 

Rocklöv et al. (Feb 28, 2020). COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures. J Travel Med. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa030