Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 2, 2020

Transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a study driven by data

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  • Non-Hubei COVID-19 cases in China were assessed to estimate generation time, incubation period, and time from symptom onset to isolation and diagnosis. While the current standard is a 14-day quarantine, this study suggests that this may be insufficient. The authors recommend a 22-day quarantine period. They also estimate that patients may become infectious on average 3.9 days prior to major symptoms, limiting the effectiveness of contact tracing and quarantine efforts. 

Li et al. (March 1, 2020). Transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a study driven by data. Pre-print downloaded Mar 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028431