Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 4, 2020

COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth

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  • As COVID-19 cases continue to appear in new countries around the world, researchers have begun trying to map the spread of the disease outside of China. In this modelling study, researchers estimate that there were 34 unobserved “founder” patients that likely seeded spread outside China.

Li et al (March 3, 2020). COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth. Pre-print downloaded Mar 4 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819