Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 4, 2020

Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

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  • Seasonal variation among the four endemic coronaviruses was used to model seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 across a range of scenarios, regions, and populations. The combined effects of seasonal changes and infection control efforts may be partially responsible for reductions in incidence globally and should be taken into account when monitoring global COVID-19 transmission. 

Neher et al. (Mar 3, 2020). Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Pre-print downloaded Mar 4 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806