Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 6, 2020

Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020

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  • Severe COVID-19 illness has been documented differently across age groups, but case fatality estimates have not previously accounted for differences by age. This report estimates an overall case fatality of 1.6% (1.4-1.8) in Hubei across both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Among those with symptoms, the case fatality is estimated at 3.3% (2.9-2.8) with a dramatic increase after 60 years, rising to 36% among those over 80 years old.

Riou et al. (Mar 6, 2020). Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020. Pre-print downloaded Mar 6 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104