Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 9, 2020

Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

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  • Tapiwa et al and Tindale et al used outbreak data from clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China to estimate the generation interval from symptom onset data, and estimated incubation periods and serial intervals, respectively. Tapiwa team examined patterns of pre-symptomatic transmission and reproduction number. Tindale et al determined the incubation period and serial interval distribution for transmission clusters in Singapore and in China. Both concluded that pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 does occur. These modelling studies support intervention strategies.

Tapiwa et al. (Mar 8, 2020). Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data. Pre-print downloaded Mar 9 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031815

Tindale et al. (Mar 6, 2020). Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Mar 9 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983