Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 9, 2020

Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

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  • Wang et al compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups using data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases. They used SEIR model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. With interventions, the effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 to 0.32 and was estimated to prevent 94.5% infections until February 18. They found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.

Wang et al. (Mar 6, 2020). Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. Pre-print downloaded Mar 9 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593