Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 19, 2020

Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

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  • Using a simulation model informed by reported cases and deaths, the authors estimate that tens of thousands of people (median of 22,876 people) were infected by the time a national emergency was declared in the US on March 13th. Results from the model suggest that fewer than 10% of locally acquired symptomatic infections in the US had been detected until February.
  • This highlights the need for immediate, large-scale efforts to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the US 

Perkins et al. (Mar 15, 2020). Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Pre-print downloaded Mar 19 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036582