Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 20, 2020

Analysis of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan based on stochastic transition model

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  • A stochastic transmission model used to predict the spread of COVID-19 and assess the effectiveness of transmission control measures in crowded areas in Japan found that the growth of infected people stagnated if time spent in crowded areas was less than 4 hours and started to decrease if cut to 2 hours. 

Karako et al. (March 19, 2020). Analysis of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan based on stochastic transition model. BioScience Trends. https://doi.org/10.5582/bst.2020.01482