Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 1, 2020

No Evidence for Temperature-Dependence of the COVID-19 Epidemic



  • Jamil et al examined the relationship between the apparent exponential rate of SARSCoV-2 spread and the Basic Reproductive number of infection (R0) and the average daily temperature across the globe and Chinese provinces. The current distribution of the epidemic infers that SARS-CoV-2 does not behave as a seasonal respiratory virus and negates the speculation that the infection is temperature dependent, and will decline in severity with the advent of warmer spring and summer temperatures. 
  • They found no evidence that spread rates will decline with temperatures above 200C, an epidemiological factor to consider in warmer countries in the tropics with recent outbreaks.

Jamil et al. (Mar 29, 2020). No Evidence for Temperature-Dependence of the COVID-19 Epidemic. Pre-print downloaded Apr 1 from