Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 2, 2020

The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies

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  • Wittkowski summarizes the time-course of COVID-19 by country and region using raw case data, and suggests that different patterns in spread and lethality indicate the presence of at least 2 strains of SARS-CoV-2.
  • His analysis predicts that US projections of peak prevalence and lethality may depend on which strain arrived first, and that containment of high-risk people and lockdowns during the month following peak incidence of infections are the most effective prevention strategies.

Wittkowski (March 31, 2020). The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies.  Pre-print downloaded Apr 1 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715