Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 2, 2020

Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China

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  • Neihus et al use a Bayesian modelling approach to estimate various countries’ capacity to detect imported COVID-19 cases from Wuhan, using Singapore’s capacity as a gold standard.
  • Findings suggest that the global weighted ability to detect cases was only 38% of Singapore’s capacity, ranging from 11% in locations with low surveillance capacity to 40% in locations with high surveillance capacity.  Case counts in travelers could have been underestimated several-fold, and undetected cases of COVID-19 have probably spread to most locations around the world.

Niehus et al. (April 1, 2020). Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China. Lancet Infect Dis. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30229-2