Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 6, 2020

Evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19 in pandemic state, cumulative cases reported up to March 27, 2020

Category:

Topic:

  • Results from this study suggest there is some association between COVID-19 incidence and regions at or above 30° latitude N (i.e. China- 31°; Italy- 41°) and a breakpoint at 72.5°F at which a significant reduction of case rates was observed.
  • While the study does not confirm the COVID-19 cannot survive or transmit in warm and humid temperatures nor establish a causal connection between temperature and transmission, the southern hemisphere should expect increased case rates as the region moves from summer into fall and winter. 

Triplett (Apr 6, 2020). Evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19 in pandemic state, cumulative cases reported up to March 27, 2020. Pre-print downloaded Apr 6 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652