Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 14, 2020

Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

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  • The authors developed a minimal compartmental model to analyze policies on mobility restrictions in Italy, treating Italian regions as separate entities in which social interactions through differing age classes occur. They found that premature lockdowns barely shift the epidemic in time and that quelled epidemics can quickly recur post-lockdown. 
  • They suggest that young and elderly people are the most interconnected, and relaxing lockdown measures to only the middle age class (20-69) can be enough to lesson contagion in the post-lockdown phase. 

Scala et al. (April 9, 2020). Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19. Pre-print downloaded Apr 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059592