Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 14, 2020

Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States

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  • A global network model was integrated with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify outbreak dynamics in China and the US.  Adopting the latent and infectious periods observed in China (2.5 days and 17.8 days, respectively), the authors predict a nationwide peak of outbreak in the US on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections.

Peirlinck et al. (April 11, 2020). Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. Pre-print downloaded Apr 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863