April 15, 2020

Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Ramsey (2020) presents a simple theoretical well-mixed populations model for studying impact of social distancing on the spread of COVID -19. The model reports that epidemic growth rate is largely determined by the upper interactivity quantiles of society, and suggests interaction capping approaches rather than overall reductions in interaction. 
• In interactivity capping, the epidemic can be controlled without extreme sanctions on the majority of the population. He recommends use of robust testing, quarantining, and contact tracing to strengthen any social distancing measures, speed up eradication, and to prevent infection or reinfection.

Ramsey (April 11 2020). Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics. Pre-print downloaded Apr 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062042.