Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 16, 2020

Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models

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  • Ranjan presents results from three epidemiological models (logistic, SIR and generalized SIER) that were used to make predictions for the final epidemic size of COVID-19 for the most affected countries, indicating that the final epidemic size in the US, Italy, Spain, and Germany could be 1.1, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.19 million respectively.
  • The model also predicts that curves for most of the geographical regions will flatten by the middle of May 2020. 

Ranjan (Apr 16, 2020). Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models. Pre-print downloaded Apr 16 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20061002