Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 17, 2020

COVID-19 pandemic: A Hill type mathematical model predicts the US death number and the reopening date

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  • Aboelkassem presents a model to predict the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S. and the reopening date. The model estimates that by mid-June or early July the outbreak will sharply decline, and the U.S. will have about 736K confirmed cases and about 41K deaths. 
  • The author suggests that late May or early June could be a good time to end the shutdown order and reopen the country. 

Aboelkassem (Apr 12, 2020). COVID-19 pandemic: A Hill type mathematical model predicts the US death number and the reopening date. Pre-print downloaded Apr 17 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062893