Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 22, 2020

A Controlled avalanche – A regulated voluntary exposure approach for addressing Covid-19

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  • Klement et al used a compartmental model to examine the implications of the controlled avalanche (CA) strategy over the population in Israel. Its main goal is to approach herd immunity faster than the current alternatives, with lower mortality rates and lower demand for critical health-care resources. It involves voluntarily exposing low risk groups (20-49 year olds). 
  • Through modeling, the authors show that CA strategy reduces overall mortality by 43%, ICU admission by 62% and release time of 50% of low risk population by more than 2 months. They however warn of serious ethical considerations. 

Klement et al. (Apr 22, 2020).  A Controlled avalanche – A regulated voluntary exposure approach for addressing Covid-19. Pre-print downloaded Apr 22 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062687